Will the RBA cut rates?
Published on 14.12.2018 19:05

Industrial production in China slumped to a level of 5.4% in November, well below analysts expectations  and also below the 5.9% figure reached last month

Retail sales figures also slumped to just 8.1% which onto of business problems, Chinese consumers are beginning to feel uneasy.

Some Analysts predict this is a worrying trend and could be the start of a much bigger decline

"The data certainly puts a further dent in recent optimism over the outlook for China that helped spark a rally in AUD/USD from close to 0.7000 toward the end of October to a high just below 0.7400 at the start of December. The 5.5% gain was fueled in part by expectations that further China stimulus would help support economic growth," says Fritz Louw, a currency analyst at Japan's MUFG.

There is also worries about the state of the real estate sector in Australia which has been in decline for some time now and although the Reserve Bank of Australia has largely ignored the data, it’s only a matter of time before it becomes a real drag on the Australian economy and may force them to slash interest rates.

This would make Australia one of the only countries to consider the possibility of cutting rates which would be devastating for the Aussie dollar

"If I had to set up a casino and the odds were 50/50 that the next move would be up or down, I'd put my money on the next move being down" for the RBA, said Chris Bedingfield, who runs a global real estate fund at Quay Global Investors after previously working in investment banking.


Andrew Masters

Analyst

The world of trading has no boundaries
Important notice
By clicking "Continue" you will be redirected to the website operated by FIBO Group Holdings Limited, a company registered in Cyprus and regulated by CySEC. Please familiarize yourself with the Terms of Business through the link. Click "Cancel" to remain on this page.