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Financial and commodity markets analytics

Market Watch review. 05.03.2021

In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:

  • Decline in retail sales in the eurozone.
  • Bitcoin trading volumes decreased.
  • Unemployment in the United States.

On Thursday, the eurozone reported changes in retail sales, which were significantly lower than expected, and even more so below the previous values. However, at the time of publication of this report, we did not see a weakening of the European currency, as the unemployment data turned out to be better than the forecast, thereby offsetting all the negative effects of the unexpected decline in retail sales. At the same time, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that in the last 4 months of 2020, we saw a decrease in unemployment in the currency block, but this trend was interrupted in January of this year. Therefore, this increases the risk of a weakening of the euro in the medium term.

Let's move on to the cryptocurrency market. By the middle of the week, the trading volumes of most tokens had significantly decreased. For this reason, the price of bitcoin has entered a consolidation phase, holding in a fairly wide range, indicating the uncertainty of the market. But since the volatility remains high, you should not expect a long-term price consolidation in the existing sideways direction. Analysts have already noted the next target for bitcoin in the range between 70 and 75 thousand dollars.

Analysts are optimistic due to the rapid increase in the number of unique addresses on the largest platforms. This, in turn, increases the likelihood of further growth in the cryptocurrency market in the medium and long term. At the same time, it is important to remember about the existing risks of a deeper correction. For example, the closest strong technical support level for bitcoin remains the psychological level of 40 thousand dollars.

And now we turn to the labor market in the United States. On Thursday, a report was published on the change in the number of initial and repeated applications for unemployment benefits. The actual data was better than the previous values, so the official data on unemployment may be better than predicted, which is positive for the US currency. This report will be published today during the US trading session.

Let me remind you that economists expect an increase in unemployment in the United States for the first time since April 2020, so exceeding the forecast can put quite strong pressure on the US stock market, which in turn can strengthen the US currency. Thus, we get a certain paradox when weak data on the labor market can strengthen the US dollar, but this is exactly the situation we observed on Wednesday, at the time of the publication of the report on the change in the number of employees from ADP.

Closely monitor the news background and be prepared for all the surprises of the market.


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