US presidential candidates debate

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Market Watch review. 30.09/2020

In today's release, we’ll cover the following topics:

  • US presidential debate.
  • US oil reserves.
  • Change in GDP growth rates in Canada.

The first presidential candidate debate took place in the United States on Tuesday evening. Let me remind you that they started at 21:00 local time or at 4:00 Moscow time. At this point, the US stock markets were already closed, so the reaction of traders and investors was moderate. Nevertheless, already with the opening of the American trading session and stock exchanges in particular, the volatility of USD trading may increase significantly.

Sales in the US stock market will help strengthen the USD after a fairly deep correction the day before. Let me draw your attention to the EUR / USD currency pair, the quotes of which returned not only above the important technical resistance level of 1.1700, but also tested the 1.1750 level. Therefore, a return of quotes below 1.1700 may trigger a wave of sales. But up to this point, active sales remain at risk.

The decline in oil prices cannot be ignored - there are enough reasons. Firstly, according to a report published by the American Petroleum Institute, reserves fell by less than 1 million barrels, and secondly, the key US stock indexes are falling - a bad signal for the entire commodity market. Therefore, it is imperative to pay attention to the data from the US Department of Energy, which will be released today. The growth of reserves may greatly aggravate the current situation in the “black gold” market.

The decline in oil prices is negative for the CAD, while it is important to pay attention to the forthcoming publication of the report on changes in GDP growth rates. Unexpectedly weak data in the report may increase pressure on CAD. Let me draw your attention to the projected slowdown in GDP growth. Considering all this, trading activity in the Canadian dollar may increase significantly.

By the opening of the American trading session, the quotes of the USD / CAD currency pair were holding below the technical resistance level of 1.3415, but the demand for the pair remained stable. Therefore, even a slight strengthening of the USD or a decline in oil prices can significantly strengthen the pair, returning it to the area of ​​1.3490-1.3510.

Closely monitor the news background and be prepared for all the surprises of the market.
 


Analyst

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