Market Watch: Yen Surges; Dollar Consolidates

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The yen reversed early losses and hit a new weekly high, while the broader dollar remains strong against most G10 currencies, except the yen and Swiss franc. Emerging market currencies showed mixed performance. Meanwhile, U.S. index futures are slightly weaker. The S&P 500 is up 0.75% for the week, and the NASDAQ has gained around 1.35%. Gold has softened but is consolidating after setting a record yesterday. November WTI oil is also consolidating, holding above $67 after briefly rising above $68.

Asia Pacific Markets
Japan is set to have a new prime minister after the ruling LDP elected Shigeru Ishiba as its leader. This was unexpected, as most had anticipated a victory for Sanae Takaichi, leading to a sell-off of the yen ahead of the selection. During the local session, the dollar reached JPY146.20, its highest since early September, before sharply reversing to JPY142.80—a new low.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar rebounded from Wednesday’s decline, rallying from $0.6820 to nearly $0.6900. It has traded within a narrow range of $0.6870-$0.6900 today.

European Markets
European economic data has been relatively quiet, apart from confidence surveys. Key events this week included rate cuts from Sweden's Riksbank and the Swiss National Bank. Sweden's central bank cut by 50 basis points, confirming market expectations of further easing, while Switzerland’s SNB followed with a 75 basis point reduction.
The euro climbed to $1.1190 yesterday but remains within a familiar range of $1.1125-$1.1180 today. Expectations for a 50 bp cut by the Fed in November have decreased, while the odds of an ECB cut in October have risen.
Sterling, after a downside reversal on Wednesday, has rebounded and reached a new high since March 2022.

American Markets
August personal income and consumption data will allow economists to refine their estimates for Q3 GDP, which is tracking near 3%. Fed Chair Powell and Governor Waller both pointed to the August CPI, which was released ahead of the FOMC meeting, as the key factor behind the 50 bp rate cut. While the Fed targets headline PCE inflation, CPI (and PPI) data provides essential signals. Next week’s employment report could further shape rate expectations.