Market Watch: Yen Soars on Rate Hike Hopes

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar is under pressure today, with all G10 currencies gaining ground. Leading the charge, the Japanese yen surged over 1% amid growing speculation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) next month. Meanwhile, US 10-year Treasury yields have dipped to around 4.25%, marking their lowest level since the recent election. The euro and British pound remain firm but below yesterday’s highs, while equity markets show mixed signals. In Asia-Pacific, major indices closed with mixed results, while the Stoxx 600 in Europe fell for the second consecutive session. US equity futures are also trading lower. Gold extended its recovery from $2,600, hovering around $2,650 in Europe, and WTI crude remains relatively stable just below $69 per barrel.

Asia-Pacific Markets
The yen’s impressive rally isn’t tied to recent Japanese economic data, as today’s calendar was quiet. Market speculation that the BOJ may hike rates in December has intensified. The dollar, which touched a two-week low against the yen near JPY153.00 yesterday, fell further today to around JPY151.35. This decline comes despite firm US yields.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar saw volatile trading. After Monday’s sharp sell-off driven by US tariff concerns, the Aussie recovered slightly above $0.6500 but faced resistance, consolidating near $0.6450.

European Markets
European data releases, such as the eurozone’s money supply figures and ECB surveys, may offer limited market-moving potential ahead of Friday’s key CPI data. November inflation estimates are expected to show a rise in the headline rate (2.3% vs. 2.0%) and a slight uptick in the core rate (2.8% vs. 2.7%). Such figures could dampen speculation about a significant 50 basis point rate cut when the ECB meets on December 12.
The euro is trading firmly but remains slightly below yesterday’s high of $1.0545. Sterling is also showing strength, approaching this week’s high near $1.2615, following a neutral close yesterday.

American Markets
With the US observing a holiday tomorrow, a slew of economic data is being released today. Key reports include October’s goods trade data, durable goods orders, personal consumption expenditures, and revisions to Q2 GDP. These figures will help gauge economic momentum as Q4 progresses. Next week’s employment report may overshadow today’s jobless claims data.
In Canada, GDP data for September and Q3 will be released ahead of the weekend. Firmer growth, coupled with the recent uptick in CPI, could challenge expectations of another 50 basis point rate cut by the Bank of Canada. The US dollar remains in a tight range against the Canadian dollar, trading between CAD1.4035 and CAD1.4080.