Market Watch: Waiting For The FOMC

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The dollar exhibits a stronger stance today ahead of the FOMC meeting outcome. While maintaining status quo for two meetings was deemed a pause, the absence of changes for a third meeting is now seen as the conclusion of an aggressively tightening cycle, especially given the decrease in price pressures.
Despite the S&P 500 rallying to its highest level since April 2022, Asia Pacific equities remain unaffected. Notably, Japan, Australia, and Taiwan experienced marginal gains. Europe's Stoxx 600 is up by about 0.25%, recovering from yesterday's dip. US index futures also reflect a firmer bias.
Gold is bouncing back from its dip to $1973, the lowest since November 20.
January WTI extended its decline to $67.70, the lowest since June, before stabilizing.

Asia Pacific
In Asia Pacific, Japan's Tankan survey indicates a slight improvement in sentiment among small and large manufacturers and non-manufacturers. Large manufacturers' sentiment has improved for the third consecutive quarter, while non-manufacturers' sentiment reached its best level in almost three years.
Prime Minister Kishida is expected to announce a cabinet reshuffle in response to the finance scandal in the faction led by former Prime Minister Abe.
The dollar, after selling off post the US CPI report, rebounded from a low near JPY144.75.

Australia awaits tomorrow's November jobs data, and today, the Australian dollar hovers around $0.6540-70, the lower end of yesterday's range.

Europe
In Europe, four central banks, including the Swiss National Bank, Norway's Norges Bank, ECB, and Bank of England, are set to meet tomorrow.
Despite the Bank of England's success in managing interest rate expectations, October GDP data has been disappointing, with a contraction of 0.3%.

The euro is consolidating below $1.1800, and sterling is at an eight-day low against the euro.

America
Turning to America, the Fed's statement requires an update after minimal changes in November. There appears to be more room to trim median GDP forecasts for 2024 (1.5%) and 2025-2026 (1.8%) than to raise them. Consequently, the unemployment rate for 2024-2026 might be revised slightly higher from the current 4.1% and 4.0%, respectively.

CAD1.3620 resistance held, where the 20-day moving average is located today, and the greenback has not closed above this average in a month.