Market Watch: US Dollar Strengthens

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar has started the week on a stronger note, appreciating against all G10 currencies except for the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and Swedish krona, which have seen slight gains.
Europe's Stoxx 600 has risen for the third consecutive session, while US index futures are trading with an upward bias.
Gold experienced a drop before the weekend, falling below $2015, its lowest point since May 9, before rebounding to nearly $2030.
Despite OPEC+'s decision to extend voluntary production cuts and begin phasing out the 2 million barrel output cut agreement in Q4, the market remains unimpressed. July WTI crude oil maintained its position above last week's low, peaking near $77.50, close to the 200-day moving average.

Asia Pacific Markets
Last Thursday, the dollar recovered from a six-day low (~JPY156.40), reaching a pre-weekend high a yen higher. Recent Japanese data confirmed the significant intervention in late April and May, as previously suspected by the market. This confirmation, combined with the decline in US yields, may cause the market to pause near JPY158.
The Australian dollar has fluctuated between $0.6600 and $0.6700, staying within this range since May 8, and is currently trading around $0.6650.

European Markets
The eurozone's final manufacturing PMI came in at 47.3, slightly below the preliminary estimate of 47.4, indicating that the economic recovery is still incomplete.
Last week, the euro found significant support near $1.0785 and climbed nearly a cent higher before the weekend. However, it has not traded above $1.09 since March 21 and is currently in a quarter-cent range below $1.0860.

The UK's final manufacturing PMI was revised down to 51.2 from the initial estimate of 51.3, but up from April's 49.1.
Sterling's recent strength against the euro, which started in mid-May, seems to have waned, with the euro falling from over GBP0.8610 in mid-May to GBP0.8485 in late May, a level not seen since August 2022.

American Markets
This week could mark the beginning of a crucial two-week period for US economic data, with the ISM manufacturing and services surveys being particularly significant. May's auto sales and the April trade balance will contribute to Q2 GDP forecasts. Bloomberg's latest survey projects 2.3% growth, up from 1.6%.

Ahead of Canada's employment report on June 7, the Bank of Canada will meet on June 5. There is a consensus among the swaps market and Bloomberg's survey, giving around a 2/3 chance of the Bank of Canada delivering its first rate cut.
The US dollar closed at its lowest point since May 20 before the weekend, near CAD1.3635. It has not closed below CAD1.3600 for nearly two months. During Asia Pacific trading today, the greenback approached CAD1.36 but reversed higher and is currently testing CAD1.3660 in Europe.