After an initial dip following the US jobs report last week, US interest rates have firmed up, providing a boost to the dollar. The US dollar is stronger against all G10 currencies except the Canadian dollar. US stock index futures are recovering from the pre-weekend decline, with the S&P 500 rising about 0.7% and the NASDAQ up around 0.9%. Meanwhile, gold is flat, consolidating at the lower end of last Friday's range. October WTI crude oil fell nearly 8% last week, marking its fourth consecutive weekly loss and hitting a year-to-date low, though it’s trading quietly today.
Asia Pacific Markets
The US dollar began the day on the back of a four-day decline against the yen, but after a brief stumble early in the session, it recovered. The yen's influence appears to be less significant than it was in late July and early August.
The Australian dollar remains weak from a technical standpoint, following a significant drop before the weekend. The pre-weekend low was around $0.6660, with today's losses slightly extending to just below $0.6655.
European Markets
The eurozone's main event this week is Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) meeting. The swaps market is fully pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut, which would bring the deposit rate to 3.50%. The euro failed to maintain the upside momentum that took it to $1.1155 before the weekend, reversing to fall below Thursday's low, though it closed within Thursday's range. Continued selling today has pushed it near $1.1045.
The British pound also posted a bearish outside down day. Unlike the euro, sterling closed below Thursday's low after briefly taking out its high. It has slipped through last week's low, with the next targets around $1.3035 and potentially $1.2965.
American Markets
The US employment data was mixed, with the 142,000 jobs added being tempered by the average revisions, and Fed officials delivered sufficiently ambiguous comments to discourage strong bets on a 50 basis point rate cut. While officials signaled a series of rate cuts, the pace remains uncertain.
The US dollar posted a significant reversal against the Canadian dollar. After initially falling to a new weekly low near CAD 1.3465, the greenback rallied to CAD 1.3580, marking a 0.5% gain—the largest in three months. The dollar approached the 200-day moving average, but there has been no follow-through buying today, as it consolidates within a narrow range above CAD 1.3550.