Market Watch: US Dollar Returns Better Bid

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The dollar has retreated after making minor new highs yesterday in North America. It is possible that the dollar was dragged down by the softness in US rates and the sharp fall in oil prices. The greenback is now better-priced today. In a morning of weak macro-data, the euro and the pound are the two G10 currencies that have been the most vulnerable. 
Equities are weaker. In Asia Pacific, all but Taiwan, Australia and India moved lower. Europe's Stoxx600 is down for the third session in a row after it rose every day the previous week. US index futures are down. 
Gold is consolidating within yesterday's range. A convincing break below $1950 may lead to a move towards $1935 then $1900. 
WTI December is continuing yesterday's drop of 4.25%.

Asia Pacific
Tomorrow, China will release its October consumer and producer price reports. Bloomberg's median survey predicts a 0.1% drop after the flat September report. Food prices remain key. China's core rate of inflation in September was 0.8%, even when energy and food are removed. 

The US Dollar is a bit higher today, at almost JPY150.80. The JPY151.00 region is now a nearby resistance. 
The Australian dollar rose to nearly $0.6450 before selling pressure forced it back to $0.6420.

The eurozone reported that retail sales in September were down 0.3%. This report does not include value, but only volume. This was the third consecutive drop. Although the preliminary Q3 GDP estimate has been published (-0.1% quarter-over-quarter), the details are sparse, but the update next week will provide more color. 

The euro, unable to maintain the push above $1.07 has fallen back to $1.0660 during the European morning. The next support area is around $1.0635-40. 
Sterling's drop was deeper but it still held the 1/100 cent (50%) retracement from last week's rally just above $1.2260. The currency also recovered, trading back above $1.2300. Sterling, like the euro, was unable to sustain its move above $1.2300 and was sold at almost $1.2240.

Today's US economic calendar is very light. Wholesale inventories today, just like yesterday's trade data, could have an impact on expectations for Q3 GDP revisions. 
Today, five Fed officials will speak. What is remarkable is that they are all governors. 
Powell's opening remarks at the Division of Research and Statistics Conference of the Fed are delivered just before the main session of the stock market. The Chair will speak on a panel tomorrow afternoon at the IMF about monetary policy in a globalized economy. 

Yesterday, the Canadian dollar retraced more than half its gains from last week despite having posted the largest monthly surplus since mid-2022. The US dollar has reached almost CAD1.3785. Today, the gains were extended to the 61.8 % retracement at CAD1.3800.