Market Watch: US Dollar Faces Offering Pressure

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Preceding today's US jobs report, the US dollar is under pressure, despite expectations pointing towards robust, if not exceptional, job growth of approximately 185,000. Noteworthy movements are led by the Australian and New Zealand dollars, while the euro nears $1.09, a threshold not breached earlier this week.

Gold is consolidating in a tight range above $2052 after reaching a one-month peak near $2065 yesterday. March WTI has experienced a slight decline of over 5% in the last two sessions, stabilizing today around $73.65.

Asia Pacific
The likelihood of a Bank of Japan rate hike next month slightly diminished, but the odds for an April hike rose to their highest since late December. However, the third-largest global economy grapples with challenges in sustaining upward momentum in consumption and production.

Soft CPI and disappointing real sector data prompted market expectations for a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia. Last week, the futures market indicated a roughly 37% chance of a May cut.

The US Dollar finds support near JPY146.25 in early local trading today, reaching a session high near JPY146.80.
The Australian dollar is ascending above $0.6600 in the European morning. A close above $0.6615-25 would positively impact the technical outlook for the next week.

Europe
The swaps market reflects an increasing perception that the European Central Bank might cut rates in April. While ECB President Lagarde indicated a midyear move, the market remained unconvinced.

Yesterday witnessed the euro's most notable rally of the year, with continued buying today edging it closer to $1.09. The euro dipped below $1.08 three times this week, each time attracting substantial buyer interest.
Sterling remains resilient today, achieving new session highs slightly above $1.2770 in the European morning.

America
Federal Reserve Chair Powell acknowledged a slowing labor market but maintained its characterization as robust. Concurrently, the unemployment rate may inch up to 3.8%, having held at 3.7% in November and December. It had previously stayed at 3.8% from August through October after reaching a low of 3.4% earlier in the year.

The US dollar marked a marginal new low today near CAD1.3365, with a break of CAD1.3360 potentially signaling further losses into the CAD1.3300-10 range.