Market Watch: US Dollar Experienced a Sell-Off

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Following a robust performance yesterday, the dollar experienced a sell-off in Asia and Europe.
Tomorrow, the ECB and Norway's central banks are scheduled to meet, and the US is set to release its initial estimate of Q4 2023 GDP.

The mainland shares index traded in Hong Kong led the way with a more than 4% rally, contributing to overall gains in Asian Pacific equity markets, excluding Japan and South Korea. Europe's Stoxx 600 is showing a notable increase of over 0.8%, potentially marking the second-largest advance of the year if sustained. US index futures also indicate a stronger tone.

Gold remains relatively stable, fluctuating within a narrow $6 range around $2028. Meanwhile, March WTI is holding steady in the $74-handle.

Asia Pacific
Japan unexpectedly reported a small trade surplus for December, driven by export growth and reduced imports on a year-over-year basis. This marks a significant improvement from the average monthly deficit of about JPY 775 billion last year, which was notably lower than the 2022 deficit of JPY 1.69 trillion.

The dollar bounced back from its low of JPY 147 following yesterday's BOJ meeting, approaching almost last Friday's high near JPY 148.80. However, there hasn't been any significant follow-through in dollar buying today.
The Australian dollar maintained its position above $0.6565 and is exploring the $0.6600 area in the European market.

Europe
The eurozone's flash PMI for January affirms that the pace of contraction is slowing, but growth impulses remain weak.
The ECB is set to meet tomorrow, and no change in policy is anticipated.

While the UK PMI has outperformed the eurozone's, the overall economy has performed similarly poorly. The UK remained stagnant in Q2, contracted by 0.1% in Q3, and might have been flat or contracted by 0.1% in Q4 2023.

The euro showed signs of rebounding today but has so far stalled near $1.0910, just below yesterday's high.
Sterling reached nearly $1.2775, its highest level since January 12.

America
With the first official estimate for Q4 2023 GDP scheduled for tomorrow and the latest monthly PCE deflator due on Friday, the preliminary January PMI is likely to attract minimal attention.

The Bank of Canada is meeting today, and while it has not signaled an inclination to cut rates at this point, the Canadian dollar has fallen by about 1.8% since the beginning of the year, following a gain of around 5% in November-December.
Ahead of the Bank of Canada meeting, the Canadian dollar has been consolidating within last Friday's range for most of this week."