Market Watch: US CPI Report Is Ahead

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The dollar has maintained a tight trading range in anticipation of the US CPI report. Despite the backdrop of rising US rates and robust job growth, the dollar's performance has been lackluster.
Several Southeast Asian markets are closed for the holiday, while Europe's Stoxx 600 is recovering from a 0.6% decline seen yesterday, and US index futures are steady.
Gold prices are consolidating within the range of $2345 to $2360, while May WTI crude oil is also consolidating above $85.

Asia Pacific markets
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand opted to keep its cash rate target unchanged at 5.5%, in line with expectations. Although the economy experienced a contraction in the second half of 2023, authorities remain wary of persistent inflationary pressures.
Fitch Ratings affirmed China's A+ rating but revised the outlook from stable to negative.

The pullback in US rates pushed the dollar back to its Monday lows, just below JPY151.60 yesterday, and it continues to trade within a narrow band today, ranging from slightly below JPY151.70 to almost JPY151.90.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is fluctuating between approximately $0.6615 and $0.6630.

European markets 
The swaps market indicates less than a 7% probability of an interest rate cut at the upcoming ECB meeting. The ECB has hinted at a potential cut in June, with markets pricing in a 90% likelihood of such action.
Additionally, there is an increasing expectation that the Bank of England may cut rates before the Federal Reserve.

The euro is trading calmly, mostly holding above $1.0850, while sterling remains firm, hovering mainly above $1.2670 and slightly below $1.27.

American markets
Today, attention is focused on several key events. First, the release of the US March CPI figures. Second, the US Treasury's quarterly refunding began yesterday with the sale of $58 billion worth of three-year notes, with another $39 billion of 10-year notes scheduled for sale today. Third, a notable meeting is taking place between US President Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Kishida, and Philippine President Marcos. Finally, the Bank of Canada is holding its meeting.

The US dollar initially extended losses from yesterday, briefly dipping below CAD1.3550. However, amid a pullback in the stock market and a slump in US equities, the dollar regained some ground, rising back to CAD1.3600.