Market Watch: US CPI Is In The Spotlight

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The current market scenario witnesses a significant depreciation of the dollar against both G10 currencies and numerous emerging market currencies. Today's focus lies on the anticipated softer US CPI (Consumer Price Index) and retail sales data. A potential decline in the year-over-year core rate could mark its lowest level since April 2021.
Equities are predominantly buoyant. Europe's Stoxx 600 continues its upward trajectory for the ninth consecutive session, while US index futures remain relatively stable.
The combination of subdued yields and a weakening dollar has propelled gold to reach a new weekly high near $2375. June WTI prices have stabilized following a 1.4% decline yesterday.

Asia Pacific Markets
The yen's one-way market trend is showing signs of resurgence. The dollar has ascended in six of the previous seven sessions leading up to today, coinciding with a net decline of five basis points in the US 10-year yield over the same period. Amidst quiet trading in Asia, the dollar experienced a downturn during early European trading.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar is testing the upper boundaries of its recent range, particularly around $0.6650, a threshold not surpassed since mid-January.

European Markets
Today's eurozone data provides insights into the past, confirming Q1 growth at 0.3% with additional details now available. Consumption levels remained relatively stagnant compared to Q4 2023 (0.6%), while government spending witnessed an increase (1.7% vs. 1.2%). However, gross fixed investment slowed (0.6% vs. 1.5%).
The euro's performance reached $1.0825 in North America yesterday, marking its highest level in a month. It managed to surpass both $1.08 and the 200-day moving average for the first time since April 9.
Sterling showcased a bullish outside up day, trading within both Monday's range and settling above its high. This momentum has carried sterling to almost $1.2620.

American Markets
US April CPI and retail sales figures hold significant importance for market sentiment. Additionally, before the Federal Reserve convenes next month, attention will be on the PCE deflator, the Fed's targeted metric, alongside May employment data and CPI figures.
The US dollar tested its lows from last week against the Canadian dollar before experiencing a stall yesterday. However, today's market shows a heavier dollar, extending its decline to CAD1.3625.