Market Watch: US: 40% Odds of Two 50 bp Rate Cuts

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The focus today is on the US jobs report. Markets currently price in a 40% chance of a 50 basis point (bp) Federal Reserve rate cut later this month. The Dollar Index is down for the third straight session, influenced by declining US 10-year Treasury yields. While the yen is nearing last month's high, the turmoil from July and August is absent.
Equities remain under pressure, and gold is trading steadily in a narrow range below yesterday's peak. OPEC's decision to delay plans to boost output in October and November has had little effect on October WTI, which is trading near a one-year low of $68.75.

Asia-Pacific Markets
Despite stronger-than-expected Japanese labor earnings in both nominal and real terms, household spending growth disappointed. July saw a minimal 0.1% increase year-over-year after a 1.4% decline in June. Meanwhile, Japanese investors continue to buy foreign stocks and bonds.
The Australian dollar, which dropped from around $0.6800 to $0.6300 in late July and early August, has been stable over the last two sessions, trading between $0.6700 and $0.6750.

European Markets
Ahead of next week's ECB meeting, where a quarter-point rate cut is widely expected, the European economic calendar is light. The euro is trading within a narrow range below $1.1120. Yesterday, it touched a five-day high near $1.1120 in North America, supported by a weaker US dollar and an unexpected rise in German factory orders.
Sterling is slightly weaker in Europe but finding support near $1.3160.

American Markets
Markets are anticipating the US employment report, which could solidify a consensus for a 50 bp cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting. There's also a 40% chance of a second 50 bp cut in one of the final two meetings of the year.
Canada's employment report holds less significance, as the Bank of Canada has already indicated that further rate cuts are likely unless inflation shocks occur.
The US dollar dipped below CAD1.35 today, reaching a four-day low of CAD1.3485 before stabilizing.