Market Watch: The Federal Reserve Day

Financial and commodity markets analytics

As much of Asia and Europe observe the May Day labor holiday, the trading activity remains subdued, with the dollar showing a predominantly softer trend. However, there's a slight uptick against the yen, nearing JPY158. The euro initially dips to $1.0650, marking a six-day low.
In Asia Pacific, equity markets that are open witness declines following significant losses in the US markets. While European equities are closed for the holiday, the UK's FTSE shows marginal strength. US index futures continue yesterday's downward trajectory.
Gold experiences a dip, reaching nearly four-week lows around $2281, before bouncing back today, surpassing $2290. Meanwhile, June WTI crude oil extends its recent losses, hovering around $80.50, the lowest since late March.

Asia Pacific Markets
Japan's Q1 GDP data is awaited in mid-May, with the median forecast indicating a 0.2% contraction after a 0.4% growth in Q4 23. Household energy subsidies are set to be halved in May, followed by their cessation in June, coinciding with the implementation of income tax cuts. This could likely lead to higher inflation and stronger growth.
The dollar shows a gradual uptrend, reclaiming more than half of its losses from the previous session, nearing JPY157.85 by the end of the North American session.

Disappointing Australian retail sales coupled with a stronger US dollar weigh on the Aussie, pushing it down to $0.6475 yesterday and further to $0.6465 today.

European Markets
European activity remains thin due to the May Day holiday. Tomorrow, the eurozone awaits the final April manufacturing PMI reading, following a preliminary estimate showing the third consecutive monthly decline.
The euro struggles to maintain any upward momentum against the dollar, slipping to $1.0650 today after touching the lower end of its recent range near $1.0670.
Similarly, sterling experiences a slight decline, slipping to almost $1.2465 today after recording an inside day yesterday.

American Markets
Ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting outcome, today's agenda includes the ADP private sector job estimate, JOLTS report on job openings, March construction spending, and the ISM manufacturing report.
While it's early in the quarter to make firm GDP projections, the Atlanta Fed starts at 3.9%, with updates expected after today's reports. However, market sentiment remains cautious, with the median forecast in Bloomberg's survey pointing to a 1.5% growth.

The Canadian dollar faces a setback yesterday, with the largest loss of the year, following disappointing February GDP figures (0.2% vs. the 0.3% median forecast). Additionally, January's growth is revised down to 0.5% from 0.6%.