Market Watch: PCE Price Index Takes Center Stage

Financial and commodity markets analytics

As August comes to a close, global investors are eagerly anticipating a new month, one that is likely to mark the beginning of the Federal Reserve's long-awaited easing cycle. The U.S. dollar is on track for its worst monthly performance since last November, as recent comments from Fed policymakers have all but confirmed a rate cut on September 18. U.S. stock futures continue to extend Wall Street's positive momentum, while European futures present a mixed picture. Meanwhile, gold prices remain near recent highs, and oil is trading around the $76 mark, hovering near the midpoint of its recent range.

Asia Pacific Markets
In the Asia Pacific region, Friday's data revealed that core inflation in Tokyo accelerated for the fourth consecutive month in August. This trend likely strengthens the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) case for a rate hike in the coming months.
The yen remains in a tight range against the U.S. dollar, with the pair trading around the 145.00 level as markets await further data.
The Australian dollar is also showing strength, with the AUD/USD pair trading near the 0.68 mark.

European Markets
The last trading day of August is a busy one for Europe. Investors closely studying several key economic indicators, including UK house prices, a range of German data (from retail sales to unemployment to import prices), and French producer and consumer prices. However, German inflation data showed a larger-than-expected decline.
The euro has broken below the 1.11 level and is showing signs of stalling, while the British pound is holding steady without significant declines.

American Markets
In the U.S., all eyes are on the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index later today. This is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and will be the highlight of a week that has been relatively light on market-moving data. However, the focus will quickly shift to next week’s nonfarm payrolls report, which is critical given the Fed’s emphasis on the health of the U.S. labor market. The upcoming employment data will play a key role in determining the pace and extent of the Fed’s rate cuts. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has warned of the risks of an "unwelcome further weakening in labor market conditions," and these numbers will clarify whether the market's expectations of 100 basis points of easing this year are justified.