Market Watch: Oil Retraces Initial Surge

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Today's key financial developments encompass the court-ordered liquidation of China's Evergrande by a Hong Kong court and the retracement of oil prices. Initially surging in Asia following a Middle East attack, March WTI, settling near $78 before the weekend, reached approximately $79.30, dipped to around $77.50, and currently holds slightly above $78.
Most European currencies exhibit weakness, with the euro hitting a marginal new low for the year. The dollar bloc, yen, and Swiss franc show a stronger bias in trading.

Asia Pacific 
The market grapples with two major economic issues in its largest economies. Firstly, there's a conviction that the Bank of Japan will abandon its negative policy rate in Q2. Secondly, debates surround the trajectory of the Chinese economy, with Beijing acknowledging the need for new measures to support it. January PMIs are unlikely to reflect these initiatives.

The dollar, settling near JPY148.15 last week, experienced initial follow-through buying, reaching almost JPY148.35. Meanwhile, the Aussie, finding support around $0.6550-65, continues to be tested in the European morning around $0.6600.

Europe
A pivotal week unfolds, beginning with the official estimate of the eurozone's Q4 23 GDP. ECB President Lagarde warned of potential stagnation, though some economists predict a 0.1% contraction. Thursday sees the announcement of the preliminary January CPI, and the Bank of England meets.

The euro, slipping to a new low ahead of the weekend, faces a heavier bias today, retracing to pre-weekend lows. Sterling remains within the $1.26-$1.28 range since mid-December.

America
Turning to the United States, this week holds significance, with Wednesday featuring the JOLTS report, ADP private sector employment estimate, and the Employment Cost Index. The Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement precedes the FOMC meeting conclusion.

Canada reports November GDP figures on January 31, with a flat trend over the previous three months. Officials concerned about core inflation persistence.
Canadian dollar is trading quietly today.