Market Watch: Markets notched eighth winning week

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Financial markets secured their eighth consecutive week of gains, initiating the "Santa Claus Rally." While major indexes continued their winning streak, Asia-Pacific markets experienced a dip on Tuesday following the Christmas holiday. Japan's Nikkei 225 showed a marginal decrease of 0.04%, yet it remains poised to achieve a remarkable 27% gain for the year, establishing itself as the top performer in the region.

The dollar exhibited attempts to stabilize on Tuesday amid thin holiday trading. Currency movements remained subdued in the aftermath of Christmas, with markets in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Hong Kong observing public holidays.

Oil found stability on Tuesday, supported by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. The expectation is that such moves would stimulate global economic growth and increase fuel demand.

Looking ahead, Bitcoin is anticipated to undergo a "halving" event in April 2024, where the supply of newly minted bitcoins entering circulation will be halved. Many investors anticipate this technical event to have a positive impact on Bitcoin prices, following the principles of supply and demand.

Asia Pacific
In the Asia-Pacific region, the likelihood of the central bank achieving its inflation target was described as "gradually rising." The Bank of Japan might consider policy adjustments if there is a substantial increase in prospects for sustainably achieving the 2% target.
The yen remained stable near its recent five-month peak, reflecting the belief that the BOJ could signal the conclusion of its ultra-easy policy. Throughout 2022 and 2023, this policy has kept the Japanese currency under pressure, contrasting with other major central banks that pursued aggressive rate-hike cycles.

The New Zealand dollar reached a new five-month high against the greenback, while the Australian dollar also remained close to its recent five-month peak.

Europe
In Europe, the euro saw a marginal uptick of 0.03%, remaining near a five-month high of approximately $1.1040 achieved last week. Meanwhile, sterling experienced minimal change at $1.2706.

America
The U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index rose by a modest 0.1% for November, slightly below expectations. On a year-over-year basis, it increased by 3.2%, 10 basis points less than anticipated. Over a six-month period, core PCE grew by 1.9%, falling slightly short of the U.S. Federal Reserve's 2% target. This suggests that, if current trends persist, the Fed has essentially achieved its inflation goal.