Market Watch: Hawkish FOMC Minutes

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Yesterday, the dollar found support from hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes and rising US rates. However, the greenback has stabilized today and is softer against all G10 currencies.
The stronger Eurozone PMI hides disparities between Germany and France but sustains the recovery narrative. Nvidia's favorable guidance is buoying US index futures, especially the NASDAQ.
Gold is down for the third consecutive session, having approached $2355, just ahead of its 20-day moving average. July WTI extended yesterday's loss, hitting $76.85 before rebounding to nearly $78, potentially marking its first advance this week.

Asia Pacific Markets
Preliminary May PMIs from Japan and Australia are not expected to alter market views significantly. Japan's economy contracted more than anticipated in Q1 2024, with Q4 2023 growth being revised down. Nevertheless, signs of recovery are already evident.
Minutes from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia meeting indicate a lack of urgency to cut interest rates.

Rising US rates pushed the greenback to nearly JPY156.65 yesterday, just shy of last week's high, and it has edged up to JPY156.90 today, holding above JPY156.55.
The Australian dollar broke support near $0.6650, falling nearly another half cent, marking its third consecutive losing session and its biggest loss in nearly six weeks. It has steadied today, trading mostly between $0.6615 and $0.6630.

European Markets
The flash Eurozone PMI aligns with the gradual recovery theme. The composite PMI has steadily improved since October's 46.5 reading, surpassing 50 in March, and the preliminary May estimate places it at 52.2, the best level since May 2023.
The euro fell for the third consecutive session yesterday, marking the largest single-day decline this month, reaching a marginal new seven-day low just above $1.0810.
Sterling performed best among the G10 currencies but remained nearly flat against the dollar yesterday.

American Markets
Three significant US data points are on the radar today. First, weekly jobless claims have been elevated in recent weeks, attributed to school employees in California and Illinois. Second, new home sales are expected to have retracted last month following an 8.8% surge. Third, while the preliminary May PMI might attract some attention, market participants typically give more weight to the ISM.