U.S. markets returned from the Independence Day holiday to find significant cooling in the labor market. Meanwhile, British markets surged due to a long-anticipated landslide victory for the UK's opposition Labour Party in Thursday's elections. This combination is further weighing on the dollar early on Friday, with the index down for the fourth consecutive day, hitting its lowest point in three weeks ahead of the June national employment report.
Asia Pacific Markets
China's stock market ended the week at a 4.5-month low, dragged down by financial and consumer shares.
The Australian dollar is attempting to establish itself above the $0.67 level. Meanwhile the U.S. dollar fell below the 161.00 level against the Japanese yen, continuing its local downtrend. The nearest support level is around the 160.40 mark.
European Markets
The pound and UK stocks celebrated the expected landslide for the UK Labour Party, which returns to power after 14 years with an estimated majority of at least 170 seats. British mid-cap stocks, represented by the FTSE 250 index, surged almost 2% early on Friday. The spread on five-year UK gilt yields over German government bonds fell to its lowest in three weeks. Sterling, close to its highest levels since the Brexit vote in 2016 on a trade-weighted basis, reached its peak since June 13 against the dollar.
The euro continues to rise, but this trend appears unsustainable.
American Markets
The Atlanta Federal Reserve's "GDPNow" real-time estimate has dropped to 1.5%, and U.S. economic surprises are at their most negative in two years. U.S. payroll growth is expected to have slowed to 190,000 in June, a decline of over 80,000 from May. Annual average earnings growth is anticipated to have eased to 3.9% from 4.1%.
Key developments that could provide more direction to U.S. markets later on Friday include: the U.S. June employment report, a speech by New York Federal Reserve President John Williams in India, and a speech by European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde in France.