Market Watch: Focus on Germany's Inflation

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Investors on Thursday turned their attention to Germany's inflation data and fiscal challenges in France, both of which are fueling concerns over the stability of the eurozone's largest economies. Adding to the unease is the looming threat of U.S. tariffs, which could exacerbate regional tensions. Despite these pressures, European markets edged higher alongside the U.S. dollar on Thursday, reversing losses from the previous session. Meanwhile, Asian stocks declined amid reduced trading volumes ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. 
In commodity markets, oil prices softened as fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East eased following a ceasefire agreement. Spot gold rose 0.37% to $2,645 per ounce, though it remains on track for a nearly 4% decline in November—its weakest monthly performance in over a year.

Asia-Pacific Market
The Japanese yen fell 0.55%, trading at 151.91 per U.S. dollar, after hitting a one-month high in the prior session. The yen's performance this week reflects growing market expectations that the Bank of Japan will announce a rate hike next month. This optimism positions the yen for its strongest weekly performance since early September.

European Markets
In Germany, all eyes are on the preliminary inflation figures for November. Analysts expect the inflation rate to hold steady at 2.6%, matching the previous month. However, broader economic conditions remain challenging. Surveys indicate that German consumer confidence is weakening, driven by fears of widespread job losses. The government's recent forecast of a 0.2% economic contraction for 2024 adds further strain.
The euro also faced pressure, declining 0.29% to $1.0535 after a 0.7% gain the day before. This drop followed comments from European Central Bank (ECB) board member Isabel Schnabel, who emphasized that any future rate cuts should proceed gradually and aim for a neutral stance rather than an accommodative one.

American Markets
U.S. equity and Treasury markets were closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, but futures markets offered a glimpse of investor sentiment. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.11%, recovering slightly from the index’s 0.38% decline on Wednesday. Data released earlier in the week showed a mixed economic picture. U.S. consumer spending increased in October, while the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure edged up to 2.3%, compared to 2.1% the previous month. These developments, coupled with potential tariff hikes on imports, suggest that the Fed may face limited room for rate cuts in 2024.