Market Watch: Fed Did Not Surprise

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The Federal Reserve Chair's dismissal of speculation surrounding a March rate cut, emphasized during the recent press conference, bolstered the US dollar but cast a shadow on stock markets. Throughout January, the Euro and Australian Dollar experienced selling pressure, surpassing the previous month's lows. Despite higher yields, the Japanese Yen emerged as the strongest performer among the G10 currencies.

Asia Pacific equities displayed a mixed performance, while Europe's Stoxx 600 faces the possibility of ending a six-day winning streak. US index futures are exhibiting a stronger bias following significant losses in the previous session.

Gold, after reaching a two-week high above $2055, is retracing and finding support around $2030 in recent sessions.
March WTI crude oil set a weekly low near $75.45, close to its 200-day moving average.

Asia Pacific
Japan and Australia released their final manufacturing PMI reports for January. Japan's manufacturing PMI remained unchanged from the preliminary estimate at 48.0, a slight improvement from December's 47.9. Australia's final January manufacturing PMI at 50.1 confirmed a recovery above 50 for the first time since last February, as indicated by the earlier flash report (50.3).

The US dollar is holding below JPY147.10, with support slightly below JPY146.50, while the Australian dollar approaches the $0.6500 level.

Europe
Yesterday's release of German, French, and Spanish CPI figures overshadowed today's aggregate reading. The January Eurozone CPI declined by 0.4% to 2.8% year-over-year, down from 2.9% at the end of the previous year. A similar inflationary pattern is expected in the UK.

The Euro reached a new low for the year at $1.0780 in late Asia Pacific/early European trading but struggles to regain ground above $1.08. Meanwhile, Sterling traded closer to $1.2625.

America
The FOMC statement and press conference injected volatility into capital markets. Despite not delivering any surprises, the Fed signaled a reduced likelihood of a March rate cut, reinforcing its reluctance to surrender flexibility. Fed Chair Powell explicitly communicated this stance.

Canada's November GDP exceeded expectations, rising by 0.2%, marking the first increase since May of the previous year. This boosted the Canadian dollar to two-and-a-half week highs, pushing the US dollar to CAD1.3465 today, with nearby resistance seen in the CAD1.3470-80 range.