The dollar is experiencing a general softness today in anticipation of tomorrow's employment report. The main events today are the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and President Lagarde's press conference. It is widely expected that the ECB will cut rates today, marking the first time it does so ahead of the Federal Reserve.
New record highs in the S&P and NASDAQ have buoyed Asia Pacific equities, particularly in Taiwan and South Korea. Europe's Stoxx 600 has risen about 0.7% to a new record high, having rallied in four of the past five sessions. US index futures are showing mixed results.
Gold has climbed to a two-week high near $1,874, benefiting from a softer dollar and lower rates, but the upward momentum has stalled, with the yellow metal now trading near $1,860 in the late European morning.
Asia Pacific Markets
Yesterday, the dollar reached its peak against the yen near JPY156.50, coinciding with a rise in the US 10-year yield following a stronger-than-expected ISM report. Today, the dollar is consolidating within a JPY155.35-JPY156.35 range.
The Australian dollar remains confined between $0.6600 and $0.6700, currently trading near the middle of this range after briefly reaching $0.6685 earlier today. The Aussie has not closed outside this range for a month.
European Markets
Today's ECB meeting is historic, as it will cut rates ahead of the Federal Reserve for the first time. Concurrently, the European Parliament election begins today and runs through June 9, leading to the formation of a new European Commission. Despite the uncertainty, von der Leyen appears favored for another term under a center-right majority, although the final decision will be made at the European Council meeting on June 27-28.
Ahead of the ECB meeting, the euro is trading in a narrow quarter-cent range below $1.0895.
Sterling performed slightly better yesterday, trading in a 20-tick range around $1.2775. Today, it is fluctuating between $1.2775 and $1.2810. The economic calendar is light until next Tuesday's employment report and April's GDP data, which will be detailed the following day.
American Markets
Today's US economic data are overshadowed by the anticipation of tomorrow's employment report, which is expected to have a more significant market impact. The US trade balance is also not drawing much attention, despite notable growth differentials and an overvalued dollar. Last year, the US trade deficit narrowed.
Canada will also release its April merchandise trade balance today. In March, Canada recorded its largest trade deficit in nine months at nearly C$2.3 billion.
Following the Bank of Canada's rate cut, the US dollar surged to CAD1.3740 but has not closed above CAD1.3750 since the end of April.