Market Watch: Dollar Under Global Pressure

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar remains under significant pressure, continuing its accelerated decline across global markets. Major currencies such as the euro, British pound, and the Australian and New Zealand dollars have all reached new highs, while the dollar hit its weakest level against the Swiss franc since 2015. The Japanese yen stands out as the strongest performer among G10 currencies, gaining about 0.75%. In addition to ongoing trade tensions—particularly between the US and Japan—falling US bond yields have contributed to the dollar’s weakness. Both 2- and 10-year US Treasury yields have slipped to fresh two-month lows. Emerging market currencies are also broadly stronger, led by Taiwan's dollar, which surged 1.4% amid hedge adjustments by insurance firms.

Asia Pacific Markets

In the Asia Pacific region, the Japanese yen has gained ground, pulling the dollar below the JPY143.60 trendline as US yields dipped under 4.20%. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey showed mixed sentiment but noted a significant increase in capital expenditure plans.
On the other side, the Australian dollar rebounded sharply after dipping below $0.6400, reaching near $0.6590. This rise came despite a cooling trend in manufacturing activity; the final June PMI slipped to 50.6 but still signaled modest expansion. Traders are eyeing the $0.6680-$0.6700 range as the next potential target.

European Markets

The euro continued its strong ascent, climbing to $1.1830—its highest level since September 2021—while maintaining a position above the upper Bollinger Band for the fourth session in a row. Market sentiment suggests further gains could extend toward $1.20. The eurozone’s manufacturing PMI for June came in at 49.5, marking the sixth consecutive month of recovery, though still below the growth threshold.
In the UK, sterling edged up to nearly $1.3785 despite mixed signals. The country's manufacturing PMI was confirmed at 47.7, representing the third monthly increase, while house prices posted their steepest decline since early 2023.

American Markets

The US dollar index has been steadily declining, hitting its lowest level since late Q1 2022. This retreat comes as investors increasingly bet on a dovish shift in Federal Reserve policy, with markets pricing in up to three rate cuts by year-end. Short-term Treasury yields have dropped about 30 basis points since mid-June, pulling the effective fed funds rate projection down to around 3.65%—a level last seen in early May. Meanwhile, US equity indices like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ continue to hit record highs. However, soft economic data, such as a projected fourth straight decline in construction spending and weakening auto sales, signal that American consumers may be pulling back.