Market Watch: Dollar Recovers

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Against the backdrop of declining interest rates, the greenback initially extended its slide during early Asia Pacific trading, only to stage a recovery. As North American trading commences, the dollar exhibits strength against all G10 currencies except the New Zealand dollar, buoyed by the central bank's hawkish stance, and a marginal gain in the Swiss franc.

The performance of emerging market currencies is mixed, with several major equity markets in the Asia Pacific region experiencing declines. In contrast, Europe's Stoxx 600 is on the rise for the first time this week, and US index futures also show a firmer bias.

Lastly, January WTI continues its rebound from yesterday, supported by an anticipated decrease in US inventories.

Asia Pacific
Australia's October CPI decelerated to 4.9% from 5.6%, a more pronounced decline than anticipated. With the central bank meeting next Tuesday, the widely recognized expectation is for it to maintain its current stance following this month's rate hike.
Tomorrow, China is set to release November PMI, and a slight uptick is anticipated amid new official efforts to bolster the economy.

Due to the significant drop in US interest rates, the dollar neared the low established last week near JPY147.15 yesterday. Follow-through selling today brought it to nearly JPY146.65.
The Australian dollar's upward momentum extended into a fifth session today, reaching $0.6675 before the softer-than-expected CPI prompted some profit-taking, pushing it down to around $0.6620.

Europe
Germany and Spain reported their figures today, revealing softer inflation in German states. Despite discussions by some American economists about the seemingly miraculous decline in inflation without a corresponding drop in unemployment, Europe is grappling with similar challenges. Tomorrow's report on October unemployment may shed more light on this. Despite monetary policy tightening and economic stagnation, unemployment in the eurozone has held steady at 6.4%-6.5% since March.

The euro rallied into the European close yesterday, and follow-through buying lifted it to almost $1.1010.
Sterling briefly surpassed $1.2730 today, meeting the (61.8%) retracement of its decline from the mid-July high before encountering profit-taking.

America
Today's data, including October inventories, a preliminary estimate of US merchandise trade, and revisions to Q3 GDP, are not typically market movers. Nevertheless, retail inventories are on an upward trajectory.

Canada's Q3 current account balance is anticipated to show a small surplus (~CAD 1 billion) after four consecutive quarters of deficits. More market-sensitive data is expected over the next two days, with September and Q3 GDP estimates on the horizon.
The Canadian dollar reached its highest level since early October, with the US dollar falling to about CAD1.3540 today before rebounding to around the CAD1.3595 area.