Market Watch: Dollar Rebounds on Fed Easing

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Despite the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement and Fed Chair Powell's press conference reinforcing market confidence that the Federal Reserve will initiate an easing cycle at its next meeting in September, the dollar is gaining strength against most G10 currencies, except for the yen and Swiss franc. Europe's Stoxx 600 has retraced a little more than half of yesterday's 0.80% gain, while US index futures display a firmer bias. A stronger dollar and rising US yields have diminished gold's appeal after the yellow metal briefly rose above $2458 before reversing lower. September WTI, which had dropped to near $74.60 on Tuesday and climbed to $78.65 yesterday, extended gains slightly today before stabilizing around $78.50.

Asia Pacific Markets
High-frequency economic data from Japan have been overshadowed by the Bank of Japan's (BOJ) announcements yesterday. Early North American traders joined the trend of selling dollars against the yen, triggering stops below JPY 150. The dollar fell to around JPY 149.80, rebounded to JPY 150.50, then took another leg down to JPY 148.50 during Asia Pacific trading.
Australia's softer-than-expected core CPI and the shift in market expectations toward a rate cut pushed the Aussie to $0.6480 yesterday, nearly a three-month low. Today, it has held above $0.6500 but has not managed to regain a foothold above $0.6550.

European Markets
Today's focus is on the Bank of England meeting. Over the past few days, the odds of a rate cut have increased in the swaps market, now standing at approximately 63%, up from about 40% at the start of last week.
The euro recovered from a dip below $1.08 on Tuesday to $1.0850 yesterday. Sterling broke out of Monday's range, falling to nearly $1.2750.

American Markets
The Federal Reserve met low expectations, acknowledging progress on inflation and recognizing the rise in unemployment. It did not alter its forward guidance that a rate cut would be appropriate until there is greater confidence that "inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%." There are still two employment and CPI reports before the next FOMC meeting.
The slightly better-than-expected Canadian May GDP (0.2%) and the broader risk-on environment saw the greenback trade below CAD 1.38 for the first time in four sessions.