The spotlight today is on the preliminary annual revision to U.S. jobs growth, which has garnered more attention than usual due to speculation of a historically significant adjustment. Despite the buzz, the direct impact on Federal Reserve policy may be limited.
The U.S. dollar is trading with a firmer bias against most G10 currencies today, with the Canadian dollar being the only exception, showing slight gains.
Equity markets are mixed, while gold is consolidating within yesterday's range and holding above $2,500. October WTI crude oil is also consolidating, potentially ending a three-day, 5% decline.
Asia Pacific Markets
In Asia, it was a relatively quiet trading session. The primary focus was on Japan's July trade figures, which revealed a shift from a JPY224 billion surplus in June to a JPY622 billion deficit in July.
The dollar held slightly below the 38.2% retracement level of its recent losses, hovering near JPY149.45 after touching a multi-year high late last week. Despite a brief dip below JPY145, the dollar recovered to approximately JPY146.20.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar extended its gains, briefly rising above $0.6750, marking its highest level since July 17.
European Markets
In Europe, news is relatively light today, aside from updates on UK government finances. However, activity is expected to pick up tomorrow with the release of preliminary August PMI data. The eurozone’s PMI readings are likely to remain largely unchanged from July, where the composite index barely held above 50.
Both the euro and the British pound have reached new highs for the year as their strong rallies continue. The euro, which hit a recent low near $1.0780 on August 1, climbed above $1.11 yesterday, its highest level since last December. Similarly, sterling is consolidating after setting a marginal new high for the year yesterday.
American Markets
The focus in the U.S. today is on the annual revision of job growth data from April 2023 to March 2024, which has drawn significant attention from market participants. Meanwhile, the FOMC minutes are expected to confirm a low probability of a rate cut in September, reflecting a sense of calm rather than panic.
In Canada, softer-than-expected inflation data did not significantly alter expectations for the central bank’s rate trajectory but has bolstered confidence in quarter-point rate cuts during the remaining three meetings this year, starting with the one on September 4.