Market Watch: Consolidation is Threatened

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar's recent decline has continued, although the downward momentum seems to be slowing. Despite this, the dollar remains vulnerable, likely in anticipation of tomorrow's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) annual revisions to nonfarm payroll data. Speculation suggests that job growth from April 2023 to March 2024 could be significantly revised down, from 2.6 million to 1.6 million. Additionally, market attention is focused on Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, where he is expected to strongly hint at a potential rate cut next month.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and NASDAQ's eighth consecutive gains yesterday have supported positive sentiment in Asia Pacific markets today. Gold surged to a new record high near $2,525, while October WTI extended yesterday's 2.5% decline, dropping to around $72.50, its lowest level in two weeks.

Asia Pacific Markets
The latest minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia revealed little new information. The futures market continues to price in nearly a 90% chance of a rate cut at the central bank's final meeting of the year. The Australian dollar is underperforming compared to other currencies in the dollar bloc today.

In Asia, the US dollar's range against the yen, set during yesterday's session, remains intact. Unlike earlier this month, yen strength hasn't negatively impacted the Australian dollar. In fact, the Aussie dollar has extended its recent gains, reaching nearly $0.6735 and inching higher today.

European Markets
With Q2 GDP already reported, today's eurozone data releases had little market impact. June's construction output rose by 1.7%, the strongest since January 2023, while the current account surplus hit a record €50.5 billion.
The euro set a new marginal high for the year, nearing $1.1090 yesterday, bringing this month's gains to approximately 2.35%. Meanwhile, the British pound has rallied from $1.28 on August 15, briefly surpassing the $1.30 mark today.

American Markets
Today's US economic calendar is light, with only the Philadelphia Fed's non-manufacturing survey being released. Historically, this survey doesn't significantly impact the markets. Fed Governor Barr and Atlanta Fed President Bostic are scheduled to speak today, though their remarks may not touch on economic or monetary policy.

The Canadian dollar has extended its recovery, benefiting from the overall weaker US dollar and reaching its strongest level since July 15.