Market Watch: BOJ Puts Pressure on the Yen

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar is relatively stable today, though comments from Japan’s new government and Bank of Japan (BOJ) Governor Ueda suggest no immediate need for a rate hike. This sentiment, supported by the softness in Tokyo’s September Consumer Price Index (CPI) and a larger-than-expected drop in August industrial output, leaves the yen as the weakest G10 currency today.
After losing roughly 1.4% over the past two sessions, Europe’s Stoxx 600 is showing slight gains, while US index futures exhibit a more bearish tone. Gold is consolidating around $2,650, while oil prices remain firm, with November WTI hovering near $72 a barrel.

Asia Pacific Markets
Despite broad strength in the US dollar, its rise against the yen has been dampened by a decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield. Signals from Japan’s new government indicate skepticism over whether deflation has been fully overcome. Additionally, BOJ Governor Ueda's comments, which point to global economic uncertainty, suggest a reluctance to raise interest rates in the near term. As a result, the US dollar climbed to JPY144.40 today.
Meanwhile, the Australian dollar saw a modest decline but managed to hold above Friday’s low, trading in a narrow range between $0.6875 and $0.6915.

European Markets
One of this year's positive surprises in the eurozone is the resilience of the labor market. Meanwhile, the swaps market is pricing in a less than 20% chance of the European Central Bank (ECB) delivering a 75-basis-point rate cut over the remaining two meetings of the year. The euro struggled, unable to close above $1.12, with rising US two-year yields outpacing German yields, pushing the euro below the $1.1070-$1.1100 support level.
Similarly, the British pound took a hit, dropping 0.7%, its sharpest decline in two months. The sterling broke through support in the $1.3300-1.3315 range and fell to nearly $1.3235.

American Markets
In the US, the focus today is on the ADP private sector jobs report. So far this year, the private sector has added an average of 151,000 jobs per month. Last week, futures markets priced in a 60% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, but those odds have since dropped to about 40%.
The Canadian dollar remained resilient yesterday despite overall US dollar strength. Today, the US dollar is trading quietly within a range of CAD1.3475 to CAD1.3500.