Market Watch: Attention turns to US Q4 GDP

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar is trading within narrow ranges against G10 currencies, maintaining a subdued stance ahead of the ECB President Lagarde's press conference following the policy meeting and the initial estimate of Q4 US GDP.

Chinese equities continue their recovery from yesterday, supported by both formal and informal measures by officials. Major regional markets, including Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Australia, have experienced gains. Europe's Stoxx 600, after a 1.2% rally yesterday, has retreated by around 0.25% in late European morning turnover. US index futures show mixed trends, while gold remains at the lower end of yesterday's range. March WTI is extending gains from the previous day, surpassing $76.30 to reach its highest level since early December.

Asia Pacific
Japan anticipates Tokyo's January CPI tomorrow, with Tokyo's core CPI likely dipping below 2% for the first time since May 2022 amid rising rate hike speculation.

The dollar hit a six-day low near JPY146.65 in North American morning trading, supported by a surge in JGB yield following a hawkish interpretation of the BOJ meeting.
The Australian dollar reached a six-day high (~$0.6620) but couldn't sustain momentum.

Europe
All eyes are on the ECB, with the focus also on the eurozone's Q4 2023 GDP report next Tuesday, potentially indicating a second consecutive quarter of 0.1% contraction.

The euro retreated from a six-day high near $1.0930, representing a (61.8%) retracement of losses from the year's peak on January 11 near $1.10. The 20-day moving average is near $1.0930. The euro tested the $1.0880 area, while sterling hit an eight-day high, approaching the upper limit of its $1.26-$1.28 range, trading as high as $1.2675.

America
The US preliminary January PMI exceeded expectations, with a composite rise to 52.3, the highest since June, suggesting a positive start to the year for the US economy. Estimates for next week's January nonfarm payroll continue to rise, with Bloomberg's survey median now at 168k.

The Bank of Canada maintained its policy rate at 5.0%, expressing caution about the "persistence" of core inflation. Bank of Canada Governor Macklem did not rule out another hike but deemed it unlikely.