Market Watch: Are the markets putting on risk?

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar has a softening bias. Only the Swiss franc and the euro are lagging behind and have a near-flat rate. The Reserve Bank of Australia is seen as most likely to increase rates again, while the swaps markets appear to be bringing ahead cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of Canada. Today and this week, the Australian dollar is by far the strongest G10-currency. The yen has recovered after an initial slow response. This is due to a stronger than expected Tokyo CPI.

It may surprise you that the market has not shunned risk in anticipation of the weekend, given the US strikes against Syria. Asia Pacific stocks rallied. Europe's Stoxx600 is slightly firmer, but still down 0.1% on the week. US index futures also have a positive bias, helped by the favorable earnings reports.

Gold remains firm at $1986, about $5 more than the settlement last week.
WTI December has almost recovered yesterday's 2.5% fall.

Asia Pacific
Tokyo's CPI for October was stronger than expected. The headline increased to 3.3%, up from 2.8%. Bloomberg's median prediction was for flat results.
The news was not met with much immediate reaction. After the report, the dollar fluctuated in a 5-pip band on either side JPY150.35. It then sank through the European morning and surpassed JPY150 by a fraction.
The BOJ will meet next week.

The Australian dollar has recovered from its lows of the year, which were near $0.6270 yesterday, and is now trading above $0.6300.

The ECB was not surprised. The ECB left its policy unchanged and confirmed market expectations that the policy would remain restrictive for a while.
After the US CPI, the euro jumped from $1.0525 up to $1.0565. Today, it is trading in the $1.0550-70 area.

The sterling reached near $1.2140, and spent the majority of today in a range of about a third cent below that.

The US GDP grew by 4.9% on an annualized basis in Q3. The consumption was up 4%. In H1, it rose by just a bit more than 4,6%. The inventories added about 1.3 points to the GDP while unexpectedly, net exports were a slight drag.
Many market participants expect the economy to show a marked slowdown in Q4. Last month, the median Fed forecast was 2.1% growth for this year.

The Canadian dollar fell to a new low of seven months yesterday as the other currencies in the dollar bloc rose. The US dollar is back on offer today, and it's straddling CAD1.38 late in the European morning.