Gold price hinges on Fed statement
Published on 18.12.2018 09:18

 The Gold price is slightly lower in the Asian trading session today ahead of a key U.S. Federal Reserve meeting which is likely to dictate the direction of the precious metal and we move into next year.

The Fed is almost guaranteed to lift interest rates tomorrow which traders have already pretty priced into the market so it will be the following monetary statement that is likely to create volatility in the markets, and especially gold.

There are already cracks appearing in the US economy as the benefit of the tax cuts introduced by US President Donald Trump wane and come on top of the trade wars currently in progress between the US and CHINA which threaten global stability and may see gold benefit as a safe haven status.

The US dollar, which has been on a major bull run this year against most of the major assets has been the major beneficiary of higher rates in the US as investors seek out higher interest bearing assets and the strength of the greenback has a direct correlation on the gold price.

"The U.S. dollar remains the prime mover for gold prices in the current term," said Benjamin Lu, a commodities analyst with Phillip Futures in Singapore.

"Though upside potential for gold prices faces impediment from a vigorous dollar, looming economic uncertainties will present optimistic conditions for safe-haven assets beyond 2018."he added.

If the Fed do come out with a cautious statement tomorrow due to their concerns over economic growth in the US some analysts say that the rally currently underway in the gold price may have much further to run and may match the levels not seen for over a decade.

“If U.S. growth slows, due to a sugar rush from tax-cuts as well as trade wars, then investors may continue to seek gold. Meanwhile, a rapid economic slowdown could see gold flows match those seen during the 2008-2009 financial crisis,” John Reade, chief market strategist at the World Gold Council, said.


Andrew Masters

Analyst

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