China is key to the oil price

The oil price hit in the US continued to make higher ground today, hitting a new 3 year high as concerns over the upcoming sanctions over Iran begin to spook the market.

The United States has made it clear to other countries that they must stop importing oil from Iran by November at the latest in order to punish the country from how the Trump administration puts it, a continuation of their nuclear weapons program.

The big question is will China agree to take part in the sanctions, as they are the biggest importer of Iranian oil and fail to do so may see Iran still release a sizable amount of oil to the market after the sanctions are enacted.

If China fails to make any commitment regarding the sanctions, we may see the trend of oil reverse again.

"The sanctions are trying to isolate Iran a bit more, and that potentially cuts more oil off from the overall global arena as a whole," said Mark Watkins, a regional investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management.

"If you're having Iran's oil taken off the market, then you have a decrease in supply and by all means, that's going to put more pressure on the price of oil to move up." He added.

US refineries have also been increasing production, which has led to record exports and as long as oil remains at current levels above $70, production is only set to increase as US drillers look to take advantage of higher prices which hinge on the success of the sanctions against Iran.

"Obviously, a very bullish draw" on American inventories, driven by record crude exports and refinery-processing rates, said Nick Holmes, an analyst at Tortoise in Leawood, Kansas, a company which oversees $16 billion in energy related assets.

 "Exports continue to be extremely robust." He added.


Analyst

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