Brexit causing further issues for the pound

The USD/GBP came under pressure on Monday as news hit the market that Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan of holding another vote on her Brexit deal was being blocked

 

Parliament speaker John Bercow noted on Monday afternoon that an old English law forbids the Prime Minister from holding any more votes on the Brexit deal if there had not been any significant changes to the deal that was put before parliament just a week earlier.

 

It was a huge blow for the PM as her deal began to gather momentum over the last few day and some say she was able to persuade some of the biggest sceptics such as members of the DUP party who are currently propping up her government.

 

If she can make changes to the deal which will then allow it to proceed, as well as get the DUP to back her some say the chances of the deal passing will jump dramatically.

 

"The focus will be on the DUP, if she can convince them to back her deal, it is likely that many of the Eurosceptic Conservatives will do so as well, as the backstop remains the most contentious issue of her deal. The DUP will come under increasing pressure to support her deal," says Lee Hardman, a currency analyst at MUFG.

 

If DUP fails to support the deal there are many scenarios for the British pound over the coming weeks with the chances of a no deal Brexit still a real possibility and if this does eventuate, all of the pounds recent gains will quickly evaporate.

 

"If May’s deal scrapes over the line, the government has said it would then request a short, “technical” extension to A50 at the European Council meeting on Thurs. If the deal fails, a request will be made for a longer extension to the exit date and parliament would then vote on alternative scenarios (another referendum, a different exit deal, etc.  If the EU turns down either request, it could lead to a "No deal" Brexit," says Sue Trinh, Asia head of FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets.

 

There are a few events on the Forex event calendar this week which should also cause some volatility and present some trading opportunities in the pound


Analyst

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