Euro up on disappointing NFP report

Published on 04.09.2023 12:22

The EUR/USD pair remains on the defensive above the mid-1.0700s during the Asian session on Monday. The major currently trades near 1.0782, gaining 0.05% for the day.

On Saturday, Belgian Central Bank Governor and European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Pierre Wunsch said that the central bank could do a little bit more. He added that ECB will have to pause the policy at some point but it's too early to talk about ending hikes entirely. Additionally, ECB policymaker, Francois Villeroy de Galhau said that they are very close to a peak in interest rates, but still a long way from considering rate cut.

On the US Dollar front, the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) for August came in at 187K, better than the estimation of 170Kand the July's reading of 157K, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed on Friday. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate fell significantly to 3.8%, compared to the market estimate of 3.5% and the prior data of 3.5%. The monthly Average Hourly Earnings rose by 0.2%, against the expectation of 0.3%. Finally, the US Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.6 versus 46.4 prior and better than the market consensus of 47.0.

Market players believe that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to end its tightening cycle. According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets have priced in that the Fed will not hike rates in its September meeting and the possibility of raising rates in November and December declined to almost 35%. Despite registering its lowest weekly gain since early July, the US Dollar (USD) trades in positive territory for the sixth straight week.

The US market is closed for the Labor Day holiday. Market participants will keep an eye on the German Trade Balance for July, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence for September, and German Buba President Joachim Nagel’s speech ahead of the ECB's President Lagarde Speech. Traders will take cues from the statement and find the trading opportunities around the EUR/USD pair.