Euro sinks awaiting Frd rate decision

Published on 01.11.2023 17:44

The Euro has slumped from a weekly high of 1.0675 reached during the European session and sunk below the 1.0600 figure courtesy of mixed economic data from the Eurozone (EU) and overall US Dollar (USD) strength. At the time of writing, is trading at 1.0580, down 0.31%.

With Wall Street printing gains, risk appetite has improved throughout the North American session. Consumer Confidence deteriorated in the United States (US), as the Conference Board (CB) revealed. Figures came at 102.6, from 104.3 in September, above estimates of 100.5. At the same time, the US Department of Labor reported that employment costs are rising. Employment Cost Index rose 1.1%, above forecasts of 1%.

On Wednesday, the economic docket would feature the ADP Employment Change report and S&P Global and ISM PMIs ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision. The Fed is expected to keep rates unchanged, but it will most likely keep another rate hike increase on the table.

In October, Eurozone inflation dropped below the 3% threshold, coming in at 2.9%, which is lower than the expected 3.1% and a significant decrease from the 4.3% recorded in September. This data supports the European Central Bank's decision to keep rates on hold last week. As a result, money market futures are now estimating that the first-rate cut may occur in the first half of 2024.

Despite the positive inflation figures, the Eurozone's GDP for the third quarter was disappointing, coming in at -0.1%, which missed the forecast of 0% growth. Despite this, some European Central Bank (ECB) officials have kept the door open for additional tightening. Joachim Nagel from the Bundesbank stated, "Our tight monetary policy is working, but we must not let up too soon." He emphasized the need to maintain sufficiently high-interest rates for an extended period.