Euro awaits crucial US numbers

Published on 26.06.2024 12:34

EUR/USD found a thin bid on Thursday, but the pair continues to grind into the midrange near the 1.0700 handle as half-hearted bidders shuffle their feet ahead of Friday’s key US inflation print. European economic data has been strictly mid-tier in the back half of the trading week, leaving markets to turn an eye towards US Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index (PCE) inflation, due during Friday’s upcoming US market window. 

European data prints moderately softened on Thursday, with the pan-EU Economic Sentiment Indicator ticking down to 95.9 from the previous 96.0, missing the forecast increase to 96.2. Friday’s German Unemployment change is forecast to show 15K net new jobless benefits seekers in June, down from the previous 25K while the seasonally-adjusted Unemployment Rate in June is expected to hold steady at 5.9%. 

US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ended Jun 21 came in better than expected, showing 233K net new jobless benefits seekers compared to the forecast 236K, and down slightly further from the previous week’s 238K. The four-week average for Initial Jobless Claims jumped to 236K, bringing the newest week-on-week figure back below the running average. 

US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) met expectations on Thursday, with Q1 GDP slightly revised to 1.4% from the initial print of 1.3%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures in the first quarter also rose slightly, ticking up to 3.7% QoQ versus the forecast hold at 3.6%. Thursday’s upcoming Presidential debate, due to start after the day’s market close, will draw some attention as investors keep an eye out for possible policy hints from candidates. 

Friday’s US PCE Price Index inflation print will be the week’s key data figure as investors hope for continued cooling in US inflation numbers to help push the Federal Reserve (Fed) closer toward rate cuts. At current cut, core PCE Price Index inflation is forecast to tick down to 0.1% MoM in May from 0.2%.