Market Watch: Dollar Holds Ground

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The US dollar opened the week with renewed strength even after weaker-than-expected US employment data released last week. Most major currencies traded lower against the greenback, while the Japanese yen remained under the greatest pressure as rising Japanese government bond yields failed to support the currency. The New Zealand dollar also weakened despite expectations that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand could raise interest rates this week. Meanwhile, OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production, keeping crude prices under pressure, although Norway’s krone managed to outperform its G10 peers against the US dollar.

Asia Pacific Markets

Trading across Asia-Pacific produced mixed results at the start of the week. Japanese, Hong Kong and Indian equities posted gains, while several other regional markets lost momentum after Friday’s broad rally. South Korea’s Kospi, which had surged sharply at the end of last week, could not maintain its early advance. In currency markets, the dollar rebounded toward JPY162.30 as Japanese bond yields climbed to fresh multi-decade highs despite the Bank of Japan’s bond-buying operation. Australia’s dollar traded in a narrow range after ending a four-week decline, while the offshore yuan weakened as the US dollar approached CNH6.80.

European Markets

European trading reflected a more cautious tone. The euro slipped below recent highs and remained capped below its 20-day moving average, with option-related levels attracting market attention around both $1.1450 and $1.1400. Sterling also traded with a softer bias after failing to extend gains recorded following the US employment report, although its short-term technical picture improved as shorter moving averages turned higher. European equities edged lower after four consecutive weeks of gains, while government bond yields eased following last week’s advance. Fresh data showed continued growth in eurozone producer prices and retail sales, while Germany reported stronger factory orders.

American Markets

North American markets focused on the outlook for monetary policy and upcoming economic releases. Futures markets now imply that the Federal Reserve could raise interest rates at the end of the year rather than in October following last week’s labor market report. The Canadian dollar remained under pressure as the US dollar approached recent highs against the currency. Investors also awaited the ISM services survey, Canadian business outlook data and Brazil’s latest trade figures. In commodities, gold briefly climbed to a two-week high before retreating, silver failed to hold above its 20-day moving average, and WTI crude traded within a relatively narrow range after recent volatility.