Surveys suggest that the Bank of Japan is likely to keep its key interest rate at 0.75% next week, although it may raise the rate to 1.00% by the end of June. These expectations have remained broadly unchanged compared with the period before the outbreak of the military conflict in the Middle East, which has intensified global inflation concerns due to rising oil prices and complicated the policy outlook for central banks.

As Japan relies heavily on oil supplies from the Middle East, the Bank of Japan may face stronger pressure to raise rates, as higher crude prices and a weaker yen increase import costs. At the same time, the oil market remains highly volatile, and its outlook is still very uncertain.

Against the backdrop of relatively stable expectations for the Bank of Japan’s policy, the USD/JPY pair continues to move higher. Prices are encountering some resistance above the 158.00 level, although there are no clear signs of a trend reversal so far.