Following Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish remarks, the US dollar has gained strength, pushing the probability of a September rate hike above 50%, which could limit NZD/USD upside. Meanwhile, the RBNZ is widely expected to hike the OCR by 25bps, with market focus on whether the central bank’s updated projections and guidance will align with or surpass expectations. Failure to do so may pressure the kiwi.