Market Watch: The Dollar Remains Softer

Financial and commodity markets analytics

Today, the US dollar remains in a defensive position. It was sold last Friday after the FOMC report and the soft employment report. The yen and Antipodean currencies are in trouble, but all other G10 currencies remain stable. Dollar is lower against the majority of emerging market currencies.
Gold is slightly lower and near the middle of the $11 range in late morning European near $1987.
WTI for December is also consolidating within the range of pre-weekend but is firmer around $82 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and Russia have said that they will continue to restrict their oil supply through the end the year.

Asia Pacific
Japan's economy appears to have contracted during Q3. The depreciation in the yen may have caused the Japanese economy to slip this year, behind Germany which faces its own economic problems.
Japan will report on worker earnings and household consumption tomorrow. Since March 2022, real earnings haven't risen year-over-year. This streak is likely to continue into September.
Dollar has been falling against the yen over the last three sessions. This is the biggest pullback since three months. Today, the streak will be broken as the dollar stabilizes.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its rate decision tomorrow morning. Bloomberg's poll found that 21 out of 24 economists expect a rate increase of 25 basis points.
In the ten days leading up to today, the Australian dollar had advanced in eight sessions. The rally of nearly 1.25% ahead of the weekend is the biggest in almost four months.

The October EMU PMI is not a significant change in the overall picture. The regional economy seems to be holding up after contracting by only 0.1% in Q3. Bloomberg's median forecast for this quarter is stagnation, but it may be overly optimistic. Bloomberg's monthly survey predicted a decline of 1.5%, but Germany's factory orders for September rose by 0.2%. The August series, however, was revised downwards to show that it had risen by 1.9% instead of 3.9%.
Last week, the euro rose by almost 1.6%. This is the highest since mid-July when it reached its peak.

The King's speech in the UK tomorrow to open a new session of Parliament will outline the government’s legislative session, which will most likely lead up to an election later next year.
Last week, the BOE issued a downbeat outlook that prompted the market to move forward with rate cuts. The market has discounted an 80% chance of a quarter-point rate cut by August 2024.
Last week, the pound rose by more than 2%. This was its biggest weekly gain of the year.

Early estimates of Q4 GDP range between 1.0% and 1.5 %. Next week, there will be a likely decline in retail sales and headline inflation. This week is light for US economic data.

The Canadian dollar's recovery was not hampered by a disappointing employment report. The Canadian dollar reached a new record for the year at the beginning of last week, just a hairbreadth below CAD1.39; it finished the week around CAD1.3660. The US dollar's decline has reached CAD1.3630.