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Comments, reviews and market analyses are based on direct opinion of analysts of the company, and on materials CQG, Reuters, Bloomberg, Praim - TASS, DOW JOHNES. On all questions connected with a published material, and your offers you can send on E-mail: cfd@fibogroup.com
Falling of level of trust of consumers and trust level in business cycles in a Euro zone has not rendered influence on pair euro/dollar which bargains on an intraday maximum 1,5782.
After a small respite the US dollar decreases again against falling of world shares, heavy prices for petroleum and unwillingness strengthening to risk. The pair dollar / the Japanese yen has fallen to 106,59 though economic data of Japan have raised fears concerning stagflation possibility. The euro/dollar pair bargains with fall, on 1,5743, and pair the British pound/dollar - on 1,9846.
Growth of pair US dollar / the JAPANESE yen, possibly, will be limited to an exit of the new data in USA the trader of one Japanese bank speaks. He notices, that \"to dollar give good support of purchase from the Japanese importers, and institutional investors, but the general relation to dollar remains negative\". Expectations of increase of interest rate of FED fall recently, therefore market participants, possibly, do not wish to purchase actively dollar, yet will not see the new given USA, such as data on number of jobs out of agriculture. Besides, on the threshold of days off many traders, possibly, will level items. The trader expects, that the pair will encounter resistance at level 107,30.
The pair US dollar / the JAPANESE yen has grown on Friday at the auctions in Asia against purchases from the Japanese importers and institutional investors.
As of 07.00 GMT on FOREX the pair dollar/yen bargained on 106,87-91, euro/dollar pair - on 1,5733-35, euro/yen pair - on 168,16-19, pair the British pound/dollar - 1,9855-59, pair dollar / the Swiss franc - on 1,0244-46.
The Japanese importers who have missed earlier possibility to purchase the American currency, have taken advantage of this easing and have pushed pair dollar/yen to 107,12 at 04.50 GMT against 106,70 on Thursday at the auctions in New York.
Institutional investors investing in foreign assets, have followed the lead of importers and have raised pair of euro/yen to 168,48 against 168,14 at the auctions in New York.
Êåyiti Iguti, dealer of Resona Bank, notices, that against falling of expectations of increase of the key interest rate of Federal Reserve System of the USA dealers can decide to wait an exit of new economic data from the USA, before purchasing dollar in more significant volumes.
Among the economic given USA which leave next week, there will be data of Institute of management of deliveries /ISM/ and data on number of jobs out of agriculture.
\"Overwork expectations of increase of the interest rate were already corrected, but this correction can proceed\", - speaks Torah Sasaki, senior currency strategist-analyst JPMorgan Chase Bank. It means, that the dollar can decrease, if data appear weak.
Traders predict, that the pair dollar/yen while will remain 106,80-107,30 in a range.
Later on Friday, market participants will analyze data on private incomes in the USA for May, which will allow evaluating a condition of the American economy and monetary policy prospect.
\"Within two last months euro/dollar pair basically bargained in a range 1,53-1,58. Now, when it is close to the top border of the range, some market participants have fixed profit on the threshold of the decision of the European central bank concerning interest rates which will be accepted next week\", - speaks Iguti.
Meeting of ÅCB will take place on Thursday, and market participants expect, that ÅCB will toughen the policy.
According to traders, more long-term prospects of interest rates remain not clear therefore with euro probably while there will be difficulties with the further growth.
On the threshold of meeting market, participants will attentively analyze comments of representatives of ÅCB and watch the data acting from a Euro zone.
The unwillingness of investors to risk has sharply amplified. In UBS have informed, that the corresponding index has grown on Friday to 0,87 against 0,66 on Thursday. In UBS this growth connect with sharp falling of quotations on equity markets.
The euro decreases against US dollar on Friday. According to the senior dealer of one large Japanese bank, it is connected by that in Asia traders fix profit. The dealer expects support for euro/dollar pair at level 1,5680.
As the dealer marks, expectations of increase of the key interest rate of the European central bank \"almost are completely considered in quotations\".
As he said, at level 1,58 there is \"psychologically important resistance as representatives of the authorities acted with comments when the pair was about this level\".
Thursday became one more day when the dollar fell against concern concerning interest rates, falling of Americans and a rise in prices for petroleum.
The attention of the currency markets is switched now on ÅCB, which practically guaranteed increase of interest rates next week.
\"If only FED will not dissuade the market that it is going to save the policy without changes in the foreseeable future, the euro/dollar pair, possibly, will exceed level 1,6000 and will aim at new record maxima within next weeks\", - Michael Vulfok, senior currency strategist-analyst Bank of New York Mellon in New York speaks.
At present the historical maximum for euro/dollar pair makes 1,6020, and it has been reached in April, 2008.
The pair US dollar / the JAPANESE yen can remain in a narrow range until the end of day, the senior dealer of one of large Japanese banks speaks. Purchases from importers, apparently, were finished. Besides, speculative investors do not wish to increase short items on dollar before the next week rich on events. It is expected, that the pair dollar/yen will be in a range 106,30-107,00 whereas now bargains on 106,89 in EBS. Traders can try to provoke operation of orders to sale with the purposes of loss restriction nearby 106,50. In case of their operation stable support is possible okolo106,20-106,30.
Good morning! The FIBO-Group analytical department is glad to welcome you on our site!
Comments, reviews and market analyses are based on direct opinion of analysts of the company, and on materials CQG, Reuters, Bloomberg, Praim - TASS, DOW JOHNES. On all questions connected with a published material, and your offers you can send on E-mail: cfd@fibogroup.com
Estimate/Previous
20:30 USA M2 money supply (16.06), bln -
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (May) - -0.1%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI (May) Y/Y - 0.8%
23:30 Japan Nationwide CPI ex fresh food (May) Y/Y - 0.9%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (June) - 0.5%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI (June) Y/Y - 0.9%
23:30 Japan Tokyo-area CPI ex fresh food (June) Y/Y - 0.9%
23:30 Japan Unemployment (May) 4.0% 4.0%
23:30 Japan Household spending (May) real Y/Y - -2.7%
23:50 Japan Retail sales (May) Y/Y - 0.1%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (May) preliminary - -0.2%
23:50 Japan Industrial output (May) preliminary Y/Y - 1.9%
06:35 France GDP (Q1) revised 0.6% 0.6%
06:35 France GDP (Q1) revised Y/Y 2.2% 2.2%
06:45 France PPI (May) - 0.7%
06:45 France PPI (May) Y/Y - 5.4%
08:00 EU(15) M3 money supply (May) adjusted Y/Y 10.4% 10.6%
08:00 EU(15) M3 money supply (3 months to May) adjusted Y/Y 10.4% 10.7%
08:00 EU(15) Current account (April) adjusted, bln - -15.3
08:00 EU(15) Current account (April) unadjusted, bln - -7.8
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) final 0.4% 0.4%
08:30 UK GDP (Q1) final Y/Y 2.5% 2.5%
08:30 UK Current account (Q1), bln - -8.5
09:00 EU(15) Economic sentiment index (June) - 97.1
09:00 EU(15) Business climate indicator (June) - 0.54
12:30 USA Personal income (May) 0.4% 0.2%
12:30 USA Personal spending (May) 0.7% 0.2%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (May) 0.2% 0.1%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (May) Y/Y - 2.1%
16:55 Germany CPI (June) preliminary 0.3% 0.6%
16:55 Germany CPI (June) preliminary Y/Y 3.3% 3.0%
16:55 Germany HICP (June) preliminary Y/Y 3.3% 3.1%
18:00 USA Michigan sentiment index (June) final 56.7 56.7
The US dollar continues to decrease during the New York session on Thursday after the decision of Federal reserve system of the USA to leave interest rates without changes and absence of any precise instructions from its party on when rates can be raised.
The final data published on Thursday under gross national product of the USA for I quarter have brought only small consolation to dollar. Data have been reconsidered aside increases - up to 1,0 % from 0,9 % that has allowed dollar to return a part of the lost positions a little.
Nevertheless, the pair euro/dollar has grown to 1,5748 morning in New York on Thursday. It is the highest level for last three weeks. The dollar also has decreased against the Japanese yen.
The markets hoped that in the application on results of session on Wednesday Committee of FRS on operations in the open market will declare more expressed propensity to increase of rates that, possibly, would cause growth of dollar.
Instead of it, in application of FED it has been only noted, that inflationary fears have amplified, and fears concerning weak economic growth have \"a little decreased. Though it specifies that rates can be raised, it also speaks that the markets should wait their any time, is possible even till the autumn.
Application of FED was \"insufficiently rigid\", is spoken in a note of currency analysts Credit Suisse. \"Markets, obviously, prepared for more certain hint on increase of the rate in short-term prospect from FED \".
In the morning on Thursday in New York the pair euro/dollar bargained on 1,5727 against 1,5675 on Wednesday in the evening, pair dollar/yen - on 107,57 against 107,77, pair euro/yen - on 169,18 against 168,95, pair the British pound/dollar - on 1,9868 against 1,9750, pair dollar/Swiss franc - on 1,0297 against 1,0355.
The US dollar has found support during the European session on Thursday in spite of the fact that made on Wednesday the application of Federal reserve system of the USA concerning a monetary and credit policy has appeared less rigid, than many expected.
As of 12.00 GMT onFOREX the pair dollar/Japanese yen bargained on 107,50-51, pair euro/dollar - on 1,5738-41, pair euro/yen - on 169,25-27, pair the British pound/dollar - on 1,9863-67, pair dollar/Swiss franc - on 1,0274-79.
Growth of dollar was affected with a combination of several factors, including probable fixing of profit before the positive given USA which will leave later on Thursday, falling of the prices for oil, and also very sharp falling of an index of consumer trust in France.
Primary reaction to application of FED was negative. In spite of the fact that FED has hinted at the increased concern inflation and even tried to speak about position of the American economy, a little that testified, that the bank is going to raise the key interest rate at this stage.
At the same time investors, similar, did not dare to push off dollar too low before the publication of a parameter of growth of gross national product of the USA in I quarter later on Thursday which as are expected, will be reconsidered up to 1,0 % from 0,9 %.
Besides it is predicted, that sales in the secondary market of habitation in May have grown on 1,8 % after falling on 1,0 % month earlier.
Reduction of prices on crude oil also promoted improvement of moods, considering, that the rise in price of oil observed recently has caused growth of inflationary moods. Quotations of futures on crude oil on the New York commodity exchange have decreased on 14 cents up to 134,41 dollars in comparison with closing session on Wednesday.
Nevertheless, possibly, most influential factor became the publication of the data who have shown, that consumer moods of France in May have sharply worsened. The basic index of consumer trust has fallen up to-46 against-42 instead of growing up to-41, predictably.
It has helped to undermine positions of euro while it got support due to the increased expectations of increase of interest rates of an eurozone next week. The president of the European central bank Jean-Claude Trichet promoted strengthening of these expectations by the performance before Euro Parliament on Wednesday in which it signalled about even greater propensity to toughening a monetary and credit policy.
Earlier it has helped pair euro/yen to grow up to new record-breaking high mark 169,47. Nevertheless, then the pair has decreased.
The pair US dollar / the JAPANESE yen has punched resistance 107,65. It has created positive prospects for pair, having aimed it on an old maximum 108,60 and key resistance of Fibonacci 109,96, mark in ABN Amro. Nevertheless, against dollar easing on Thursday of steam has fallen to 107,76, and in bank say, that having dug more low 107,65 will make pair vulnerable, having aimed it on support 106,56, 106,43 and 106,39.
At this session of steam of euro/dollar some falling against fixing of profit have gone through and now grow towards an intraday maximum 1,5685. According to one of traders if the pair manages to exceed a mark 1,57, its growth, possibly, will be accelerated. The pair will be lifted to 1,58 as market participants will reduce for a long time open short items. The trader expects, that to days off the area 1,5800-50 will be reached.
Technical strategist-analyst BNP Paribas Claude Mettern asserts, that technical prospects of pair US dollar / the JAPANESE yen are positive. It is ready to punch resistance 108,40-108,60 and to aim on 109,15. Mettern considers, that as soon as possible support will be at level 107,70. He says, that prospects of such growth will come to naught in a case fall steams more low 107,10.
The pair US dollar / the JAPANESE yen grow after meeting of FED, but in RBS recommend it to sell. \"Without dependence that FED wishes to inspire to us, decreasing risks for economic growth of the USA have not decreased\", - warns bank.
Though the euro/US dollar pair decreases against falling of an index of consumer trust in France to-46 against-42, in Commerzbank expect, that the pair still will grow. According to bank, it will occur, as item of FED has appeared less rigid, than assumed the last performances, and ÅCB is ready to raise the interest rate already next week. The pair will bargain, most likely, in a range 1,5625-1,5770 till the end of the next week, speak in bank.
The euro has reached a record maximum against the Japanese yen and has grown against US dollar on Thursday at the auctions in Asia. In the market, conversations that the European central bank will raise interest rates faster began to sound more loudly, than it will be made by central banks of the USA and Japan.
As of 07.00 GMT on FOREX the pair dollar/yen bargained on 107,93-97, euro/dollar pair - on 1,5672-76, euro/yen pair - on 169,18-22, pair the British pound/dollar - 1,9738-42, pair dollar / the Swiss franc - on 1,0354-58.
According to traders, the euro can grow still above if representatives of the countries of the Big seven do not try to limit its advancement by means of verbal intervention.
Traders notice, that in the beginning of the Asian session large American and European banks together with some Singapore investors have rushed to purchase euro. These purchases have helped uniform European currency to grow more than on third of yen and to reach 169,33 yens in system EBS. It is the high level for all history of existence of euro.
The euro also has grown to a session maximum 1,5685 dollars, having come nearer to the high level for 12 sessions 1,5687 which has been reached the day before.
\"We predict, that next month euro can grow to 171 yens\", - speaks Seyitiro Ìutà from UBS. As he said, the euro can grow and against dollar, however expectations of verbal intervention from the countries of the Big seven can limit its growth by level 1,5800 dollars.
As marks Ìutà, the euro has grown on Thursday because \"the application presented on the eve of Federal Reserve System, was mute disappointing\". Conversations Besides, go, that ÅCB can continue monetary policy toughening even after increase of the key interest rate on July 3.
In FED environment has kept short-term interest rates at level of 2,0 %, having interrupted the aggressive campaign for softening of a monetary policy which started last summer. Nevertheless, in the application, the presented ambassador of meeting, FED in any way has not hinted at possibility of fast toughening.
Contrary to it president of ÅCB Jean-Claude Trichet has declared on Wednesday in Euro Parliament that the bank can raise a little the key interest rate to constrain inflationary expectations, having repeated words, which he spoke earlier in June.
Comments Òrichet have strengthened conversations that ÅCB will raise the interest rate next Thursday to 4,25 % from 4,00 %, and within next months monetary policy toughening can proceed.
Traders wait for the given USA on sales on a housing accommodation secondary market in May, which leave later on Thursday. The economists interrogated Dow Jones, consider, that sales have grown on 1,8 % in comparison with the last month after falling on 1,0 % in April.
The government of the USA also will publish definitive data under gross national product for I quarter. Economists predict, that the growth estimation will be revised to 1,0 % from 0,9 %.
The euro bargains on Thursday without significant changes, expecting the further economic data, which will help to check up recent applications of Federal Reserve System of the USA and the European central bank. The dealer says, that euro, most likely, still will grow up, as ÅCB \"almost for certain\" will raise the key interest rate next week.
On Wednesday, the dollar has fallen concerning euro against that the Committee on open market operations of FED of the USA has kept interest rates without changes. The currency market has considered that FED has not given the chance hints on fast increases. FED has voted nine negative votes of one for preservation of target level for the interest rate on which banks issue credits one another, on a mark of 2 %. FED also has kept the discount interest rate on which banks and brokers borrow money at FED, at level of 2,25 %.
In the accompanying application chiefs of FED have indicated that though the economy meets difficulties, chances of sharp slowing down or recession have gone down. \"Increasing risks for inflation and inflationary expectations have increased\", - they have added.
Adam Boyton, currency strategist-analyst of Deutsche Bank in New York, has declared: \"People in the currency market, probably, expected from FED more a hard line. That we saw is shift in this direction, but not obviously expressed propensity to toughening. It has helped euro to grow a little\".
Jens Nordvig, currency strategist-analyst of Goldman Sachs in New York, has noticed that now on the foreground there are economic given USA.
Resistance on steam the Australian dollar/US dollar 0,9650 it will not be punched, the first support - on 0,9550, speaks the senior currency strategist-analyst from National Australia Bank John Kiriakopoulos. He notices, that reduction of expectations of increase of rates of FED of the USA for the past some weeks has helped a two-year-old swap on a difference between interest rates to Australia and the USA to grow almost on 25 basis points from a five-month minimum of 407 basis points, but the spread remains less level of 460 basis points which was characteristic for trade above 0,9650 in May.
Good morning! The FIBO-Group analytical department is glad to welcome you on our site!
Comments, reviews and market analyses are based on direct opinion of analysts of the company, and on materials CQG, Reuters, Bloomberg, Praim - TASS, DOW JOHNES. On all questions connected with a published material, and your offers you can send on E-mail: cfd@fibogroup.com
Estimate/Previous
06:00 Germany Import prices (May) - 0.9%
06:00 Germany Import prices (May) Y/Y - 5.7%
06:00 Germany Import prices excluding oil (May) Y/Y - 1.5%
06:45 France Consumer confidence (June) - -41
07:30 Italy Business confidence (June) - 89.6
12:30 USA Jobless claims (week to 21.06) 380K 381K
12:30 USA GDP (Q1) final Y/Y 1.0% 0.9%
12:30 USA PCE price index (Q1) final - 3.5%
12:30 USA PCE price index ex food, energy (Q1) final 2.1% 2.1%
14:00 USA Existing home sales (May), mln 4.99 4.89
17:00 France Unemployment (May) - -8.4K
The pair US dollar /CANADIAN DOLLAR bargains in the bottom part of a range 1,01-1,02. But in Barclays Capital say, that while the pair remains above support 1,0070, it is possible to expect its returning to range maxima. In bank recommend to purchase pair at falling in area of support 1,01-1,0070, considering of more selling, with stop orders more low 1,0010. At growth above 1,0210 steams can grow to 1,0325 and above.
The US dollar bargained in different sizes and remained in narrow ranges during the European session on Wednesday as investors leveled the items before the decision of Committee on open market operations of Federal Reserve System of the USA, which is expected later in the afternoon.
As of 12.00 GMT on FOREX pair dollar / the Japanese yen bargained on 107,92-97, euro/dollar pair - on 1,5585-87, euro/yen pair - on 168,22-25, pair the British pound/dollar - on 1,9723-28, pair dollar / the Swiss franc - on 1,0404-08.
In spite of the fact that the last economic given USA indicate the further aggravation, the market still considers in quotations increase of interest rates in short-term prospect as a result of anxiety of FED concerning inflation.
In the meantime, the euro has small support against news that the European central bank will hold meeting and press conference in August when the bank management usually goes on leave and supports contacts only by phone.
These news have generated conversations that ÅCB can raise rates not only in July, but also in August. Nevertheless, in the past management of ÅCB already held meetings in August without changes of interest rates.
The dilemma facing FED, the last days became more obvious as the index of consumer trust of the USA has fallen to the lowest significance for 16 years, and the price index on housing accommodation Case-Shiller has decreased on 15,3 % that became the most significant annual decrease for all history of management similar statistics.
At the same time, inflationary fears have amplified, as the companies worldwide have started to raise the prices in connection with growth of expenses for energy carriers and raw materials.
Ìitul Êîtecha, the head of department of the analysis of world currency markets Calyon Credit Agricole in London, says, that application of FED, \"it is probable, will indicate that powerlessness which is tested by many central banks now in the face of high both more and more growing inflation and low and continuing to be slowed down by economic growth\".
Besides it, he expects that the dollar will test decreasing pressure against new bad news on Wednesday when there are data under orders for durable goods and sales in the primary market of housing accommodation of the USA.
It is expected, that the volume of orders for durable goods in May was reduced to 0,5 % after decrease on 0,6 % month before. Sales in the primary market of housing accommodation, according to forecasts, possibly, have fallen to 3,0 % after growth on 3,3 % in April.
The uncertainty reigning in the market concerning those, how much inclined to toughening to a monetary policy will appear FED, was reflected in little bit negative indicators of equity markets. Share index Dow Jones Industrial Average has decreased following the results of the auctions on Tuesday on 0,3 %, and Nikkei on Wednesday - on 0,1 %.
Despite plans of ÅCB to hold meeting in August, prospects of interest rates in a Euro zone can be not aside so strong increase, considering weak significances of an index of moods in business cycles of Germany Ifo and an index of managers on the supply, published earlier this week.
The euro has got support at the expense of the extremely rigid performance of president of ÅCB Jean-Claude Trishe before EuroParliament. Òrichet not only has noted intermediate term increasing risks for inflation and has warned about necessity to avoid its secondary effects.
The pair has reached the British pound/US dollar of an intraday maximum at level 1,9738, and one of traders heard conversations on stop orders above 1,9760. He expects, that the pair will encounter resistance nearby 1,9750, however says, that break above this level can provoke growth to strong resistance nearby 1,98.
Futures for interest rate of FED consider in the price increase of the key interest rate in September and one more increase to a close of the year. If application of FED signals about a rigid monetary policy, it will lead to new growth of expectations of increase of the key interest rate and, probably, will lower pair of euro/US dollar to a minimum 1,5470, mark in bank. On the other hand, if the application is less rigid, than it was expected, euro/dollar pair, most likely, in the nearest sessions will check up on durability top level of a range 1,5650-1,57.
The euro/US dollar pair continues to fluctuate above and below marks 1,5516 and 1,5579 which are sliding averages for 9 and 27 days accordingly, speaks Andy Heart, analyst of Commerzbank. He notices that intermediate term prospects of pair are neutral. Therefore, he recommends remaining to the party, the picture will not clear up yet.
The unwillingness of investors to risk has fallen, to what the unwillingness index testifies to risk UBS which on Wednesday has made 0,71 against 0,74 on Tuesday. The bank says, that it has occurred against low activity auctions on the threshold of meeting of FED which will take place in the USA later on Wednesday.
The balance of risks for US dollar is displaced towards decrease, mark in Calyon. First, application of FED, most likely, will demonstrate powerlessness of central banks in the face of economy and development of inflation slowing down. Besides, as mark in bank, from the USA, possibly, adverse data under orders for durable goods and sales in the primary market of housing accommodation will act.
Ìàmoru Àrài, senior dealer of Mizuho Corporate Bank, recommends paying attention of reaction of equity market to the application of Committee on open market operations of FED. If shares go down, it can testify that the market does not agree with monetary policy of FED, and it can render decreasing pressure upon US dollar. At the moment of a writing of the article of steam dollar / the Japanese yen bargained on 107,82. It is expected, that the next weeks pair will bargain in a range 105-108. After meeting of FED market participants, most likely, will concentrate on data on number of jobs out of agriculture of the USA, which leave next week to define, whether FED can raise interest rates on 50 basis points to a close of the year as the markets expect.
