REVIEW 16-05-2008

Stocks
Futures for share indexes of the USA on Thursday have finished a trading session with increase as index S&P 500 has added 14,91 items, that is on 1,1 %, and has reached level 1423,57 while index Dow Jones Industrial Average has increased on 94,28пункта, that is on 0,7 %, and has reached a point in 12992,66, and index NASDAQ Composite Index has added 37,03, that is 1,5 %, to level in 2533,73 thanks to advancement Yahoo! On 2,3 %.

The American markets have promoted yesterday, and index Standard and Poor \'s has appeared on a four-month maximum against applications of analysts that manufacturers of microchips will win from growth of world demand, and that shares of power sector are cheap enough in relation to present petroleum prices. Intel and Nvidia have headed advancement of manufacturers of semiconductors to a maximum for this year against message Friedman Billings Ramsey that the quantity of orders grows. Intel, the world's largest manufacturer of microchips, has left in plus on $1,13 and has reached a point in $24,97.

Nvidia, the second-large manufacturer of graphic computer chips, was closed in plus on $1,71 on a mark in $23,78. LSI, manufacturing network chips and memory chips, has added 19 cents to level in $7,01. The largest petroleum company Exxon Mobil became the initiator of rally of power sector after analysts UBS have declared, that petroleum branch \"is remarkable is cheap \". Company shares have risen in price for $1,39 to a mark in $91,30.

Chevron, the second-large petroleum company, has left in plus on $1,42 to a mark in $98,49. Tiffany and Co has reached a maximum since November after occurrence of the information that the company has raised the rate of dividends on 13 % against unexpectedly high growth of profit for the first quarter. Shares have jumped up on $3,03, that is 6,6 %, to a mark in $48,88. Thanking Tiffany, others have promoted also retailers as a part of index S&P 500, as a result having blocked a negative from the macroeconomic statistics on employment in the USA.

Eight of ten branch groups have added yesterday led by hi-tech and commodities. The third on size a network of department stores in USA J.C. Penney also has participated in rally after the publication of the report on profit, which has fallen more poorly, than analysts has expected. Forecasts of the company for the second quarter have converged with forecasts and have made 38 cents on the share. As a result of these news of the share have risen in price for $2,07 to level in $46,32.

Shares Cnet Networks have flied up on $3,46, that is 44 %, to level in $11,41, this strongest advancement since 2001 after CBS has made decision to acquire this on-line news service for $1,8 bln, and the offer the closing price evaluates company shares on 45 % above, than them the day of yesterday. Shares most CBS have fallen in the price for 59 cents to a mark in $24,23.

Shares EMC, the manufacturer of specialized computers, have added as much as possible since October against hearings that EMC will sell the share or its part in company VMware. Shares EMC have risen in price for $1,12 to $17,80. Also the auctions became more active against hearings that large acquisitions and absorption in the market yet have not ended - Carl Icahn declared the capture plan under the control of board of directors Yahoo!, to reinstate negotiations on merge with Microsoft. As a result of share Yahoo have added 61 cent to a mark in $27,75.

Recommendations about trade S&P500. Trade on Thursday passed with increase, in a trading range 1406. The future for share index S&P500 on Thursday has considerably grown also the practical has closely approached to the top border of a price range (level of 1426 items) and smog not punches it yet. The price for index S&P500 still is above sliding average with the period 55 (level 1369) on the day schedule and it is gradually developed upwards, that is a signal to the further rise in price in intermediate term prospect.

Sliding averages on indicator ADX on 4-hour schedule were crossed in favor of the further recovery of price. Force of a trend thus amplifies and makes 41 items that indicates that in short-term prospect in the market most possibly rise in price continuation. The price for share index S&P500 also has punched sliding average with the period 55 (level 1407.50) on 4х the hour schedule. Resistance breakdown at level 1407.50 is very positive factor for an appreciation. Lines Bollinger Bands on 4х the hour schedule are developed upwards, as well as on day, that indicates growth continuation.

On the day schedule, indicator ADX indicates that sliding averages were crossed in favor of the further increase. Force of a trend thus amplifies and makes 20 items. We expect continuation of growth after resistance breakdown at level of 1426 items (the top border of a price range 1369-1426) in intermediate term prospect. Support breakdown at level of 1369 items most possibly reduction of prices in intermediate term prospect to support at level of 1255 items. We recommend following levels of support: 1407.50, 1395.0, 1368.00, 1356.0, 1331.0, 1280.0, 1260.0, 1218.50, 1171.50, 1095.0. Resistance levels: 1426.00, 1437.0, 1482.00, 1525.0, 1586.0.
Bond market
Treasuries fell, heading for their biggest weekly loss this month, following gains in stocks and inflation warnings from central bankers.
Two-year yields, among the most sensitive to interest-rate changes, rose 23 basis points this week. They climbed to 2.59%, or more than half a percentage point above the Federal Reserve's target for overnight bank lending, the most since 2005. Traders began forecasting the USA central bank will raise borrowing costs by year-end as the government started distributing tax rebates as part of a $168 billion growth plan.
Crude oil
Futures for petroleum were closed with fall the third session from four. The auctions on Thursday passed very roughly: this day expired period of validity of options under June contracts, and the Senate of the USA has approved the administration bill, which allows strengthening regulation of the market of energy carriers. Quotations of June futures on easy low sulfur petroleum following the results of the auctions on the New York commodity exchange /NYMEX/ have decreased on 10 cents, or on 0,1 %, to 124,12 dollars for barrel. During session futures fluctuated between an intraday maximum 126,64 dollars and a minimum 120,75 dollars.

Following the results of the auctions in London on InterContinental Exchange futures for petroleum of mark Brent were closed with fall on 61 cent at level 121,25 dollars for barrel. Petroleum prices have decreased because the Senate has approved the administration bill expanding authorities of the Commission on urgent exchange trade/CFTC/on regulation of the electronic auctions in the market of energy carriers. The administration bill requires of traders to conduct the control journal of bargains, allows CFTC to trace manipulations in the market, to raise fines and to limit speculative trade. In the market, there were fears that similar rules will frighten off speculators and other market participants who to no small degree promoted a rise in prices for petroleum. However, the administration bill hardly would make similar effect.

Sudden reduction of prices and their sharp growth last minutes sessions speaks that on Thursday options for June contracts expired. Many options placed nearby 125 and 120 dollars, therefore when quotations of futures of drop below the first level, traders tried to provoke their falling and below the second level.

Futures for the top internal black oil, promoting the growth to a rise in price of all energy carriers in May, on Thursday have suffered less loss, than futures for petroleum and for petrol. It means that the market of distillates remains strong. June futures for top internal black oil were closed with increase on 46 items at level 3,6224 dollars for gallon. The prices for top internal black oil of the usual reach the peak during the winter period then the attention of the market moves on petrol. However this year demand for petrol in the USA is low, whereas demand for diesel fuel in Europe, to Asia and the South America exceeds the internal offer.

Recommendations about trade Crude Oil. At the auctions on Thursday, the petroleum price once again could not overcome the top border of a price range then has sharply decreased, but to the termination of the auctions, the petroleum price has returned the large part lost to an item. Such volatility in the market it is connected with protection of options which placed around 120 and 125$ for barrel. One more significant factor of volatility that the large part of market participants passed from the June futures contract in July yesterday became strong, that is/bulls / sold June contracts, and July purchased, as the June contract expires on May, 19th.

The petroleum price still is above sliding average with the period 55 on the day schedule (level 113.05), that the good factor for the further recovery of price, but on the other hand the divergence of the price and level of passage sliding average on the one hand is, is simply huge. In addition, it can lead to deeper correction. On the day schedule, indicator ADX indicates that sliding averages still disperse in favor of the further rise in price. However, force of an ascending trend thus decreases and makes 33 items that can foretell a turning point in the market of petroleum and the beginning of more serious correction.

On 4х hour schedules indicator ADX indicates to us that sliding averages have dispersed in favor of recovery of price, thus force of a trend while is insignificant and makes 16 items that indicates probability of recovery of price in short-term prospect. In favor of recovery of price, petroleum indicates at that, that the price remained following the results of the yesterday's auctions above sliding average with the period 55 on 4х hour schedules (level 123.85). Lines Bollinger Bands still move upwards on the day schedule, and on 4х the hour schedule are consolidated, that indicates high probability of continuation of growth, after yesterday's intraday correction.

The majority of market participants/have shaken out / from long positions yesterday and now the petroleum price can continue the increase. On 4 hour schedule it is visible, that resistance at level 126.20$ for barrel became a serious obstacle. Breakdown of the given level of resistance can be used for opening of long positions. In intermediate term prospect the rise in price for petroleum to 130$ for barrel is the most probable. Resistance levels: 125.0, 126.20, 127.0, 128.50, 130.0. Support levels: 123.85, 120.40, 119.75, 115.30, 112.00, 110.15.
Gold
Futures for gold on Thursday have risen in price against closing of short items. Gold has got in the beginning of session support thanks to decrease in US dollar and a rise in prices for petroleum - these factors promote a rise in prices for gold more often. Then futures have lost a part of the won items though have finished session with increase, despite the followed reduction of prices on petroleum and dollar growth. Besides, market participants closed short items. Quotations of June futures on gold following the results of the auctions on СОМЕХ, have grown for 13,50 dollars to 880 dollars for troy ounce.

During session futures for gold have reached a maximum on a mark 888,50 dollars. The weak given USA published on Thursday, have supported to the gold market in communication by their potential influence on an US dollar exchange rate. Industrial production in the USA in April has fallen to 0,7 % against the forecast-0,4 %. The number of primary demands for the unemployment benefit for a week on May, 4-10th has grown on 6000 to 371 000 while the number of secondary demands has successively exceeded the third week 3 million Industrial index of FED New-York in May has fallen to-3,23 against 0,63 in April.

Besides, on Wednesday there were published data on inflation of consumer costs in the USA in April according to which, inflation has appeared enough low. All it allows Federal Reserve System of the USA in more to degree to attend to weakness of economy and calm down fears concerning inflation. However, II quarter usually is weak for gold. The large part of jewels from gold is sold in I and IV quarters, considering holidays worldwide.

Futures for gold are still consolidated after falling from record maxima though continue to bargain approximately for 200 dollars above in comparison with levels of September of last year. Gold prices are kept within the limits of a range established recently, and do not leave for key significances on schedules. Key levels of support for June futures for gold are possessed about 854 dollars that is level of correction of Fibonacci on 50 % of a wave of growth from a minimum of August to a maximum of March. If within three days the auctions on gold are closed below this level, it will be a signal to further decrease to a mark to 810,10 dollar, level of correction of Fibonacci on 61,8 %.

Recommendations about trade (Gold). At the auctions on Thursday gold bargained with increase in a range 862$ for troy ounce. Following the results of the auctions on Thursday, the gold price has once again tested the top border of a range at level 886, and a line of the descending trend originating with 16/03/2008. On 4х the hour schedule it is visible, that the gold price has punched upwards sliding average with the period 55 (level 878$), that is a strong signal to the further rise in price.

The gold price 24/04/2008 has punched the bottom border of a triangle (see the schedule) and is still possessed below sliding by average with the period - 55 (level 936.0) on the day schedule. On the day schedule it is visible, that the gold price after breakdown of a triangle has carried out the problem and has reached a point 848$ for troy ounce then trade in a range 846-886 is most probable.

Sliding averages on indicator ADX on 4х hour schedules were crossed on increase. Force of a trend on 4-hour schedule thus decreases and makes 27.0 items. Corridor Bollinger Bands is narrowed on day schedules and on 4 sentries is in lateral movement that indicates on /flat/ and trade in a range 846-886, in short-term prospect.

On day schedule ADX indicates that sliding averages begin disperses in favor of decrease. However, force of a descending trend thus dies away and makes 16 items. At the moment in the market there was / a double / situation, on the one hand the price gold has closely approached to a line of a descending trend and from this follows, that at breakdown of a descending trend in the market will appear / technical / purchases. It will lead to a rise in prices, at least to resistance at level of 907.5 cents. On the other hand, recoil from a descending trend will cause new decrease to support at level 846$. We recommend following levels of support: 878, 846.0, 786.8. Resistance levels: 886, 907.5, 936, 960, 980, 1000.0.