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Oil ma pull back to $40
Published on 06.12.2016 19:59

The oil price fell for the first time in 4 days today as skepticism creeped in over some OPEC member’s commitment to keep to their end of the deal and cut production.

At 5.37pm crude oil was trading at $50.83 down from $51.79 in yesterday’s trading.

All though a deal was reached last week, some are starting to predict that it will be hard to monitor and history shows that it’s virtually impossible to reach consensus,

"Adherence to assigned OPEC quotas is apt to be limited and enforcement of such nearly impossible," Jim Ritterbusch, president of Chicago-based energy advisory firm Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a note.

"With most of the planned reduction falling on the shoulders of the Persian Gulf producers, we look for other OPEC members to virtually ignore assigned quotas," he added.

Russia who also agreed to cut production along with OPEC members, appears to have no faith in the deal and expects the oil price back under $50 in the nearest future according to Ksenia Yudayeva of Russia's central bank.

"We see from recent developments there may be some probability of higher oil prices but also a lot of risks to the downside," Yudayeva told an investment conference in London.

"Looking at forecasts, we think there is low probability that we need to significantly revise the base case forecast.” She added. The central bank has a medium term forecast for $40 a barrel


Andrew Masters

Analyst

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