Market Watch: Gold And Oil Are Surging

Financial and commodity markets analytics

The Dollar Index has reached a new yearly high, surpassing 105 as predicted by the recent lows of the Bannockburn World Currency Index, which tracks the currencies of the 12 largest economies. Sterling, along with the dollar bloc and Scandis, has seen minor gains against the dollar, while the Swiss franc has experienced a 0.5% decline.
Despite the strong dollar and rising interest rates, gold continues to attract buyers, reaching a new record high just below $2267. May WTI is also on the rise, surpassing $85, buoyed by positive PMIs and news of crude export cuts from Mexico.

Asia Pacific 
Following the Bank of Japan's exit from its negative interest rate policy last month, speculation surrounds the timing of the next move. A recent Bloomberg survey indicates varying opinions, with 25% predicting a hike in June/July, and 37% foreseeing one in September/October.
The dollar strengthened against the yen, reaching a three-day high above JPY151.75.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35%, with the Aussie showing resilience above recent lows.

Europe
Europe's return from the holiday weekend brings attention to the preliminary March CPI data. Last week, softer-than-expected figures were reported by France and Italy.
In the UK, the final manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations, reaching 50.3, the first reading above 50 since July 2022.

The euro stabilized, encountering resistance around the $1.0750-60 range, while sterling faced downward pressure, falling to $1.2540, its lowest since February 14.

America
The manufacturing ISM index surpassed 50 for the first time since 2022, leading to a reduction in the likelihood of a June interest rate cut, now estimated at around 60%. Additionally, the futures market adjusted downward its projections for the total Fed rate cuts this year to approximately 68 basis points.

Despite earlier highs, the dollar remained above CAD1.3570, though it has since retraced to nearly CAD1.3555.